KevinCoxItem



Just a couple of chalky winners on a chalk filled afternoon yesterday

Don't forget, if you go back to the main page, we have today's analysis for the Grade 1 Alcibiades from Keeneland !

Happy to say that this Saturday I will once again be making a pledge to help sick and dying horses from the recent hurricane in Puerto Rico. This time I will donate 10X my winning prices from this column on Saturday to @CaribbeanOTTB , which is getting vital food and medication to all those who need it at the racetrack down there. Some animals have simply been abandoned, and so far 11 who have been left to stand in water have died from various ailments such as founder. This organization is doing yeoman's work down there, and I wholeheartedly encourage y'all to match--or at least partially match what we do here. So far for two hurricanes we have donated/generated more than $4,000 for the Red Cross & The American Associaton of Equine Practitioners. Let's do it one more time, peeps !


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


I want to thank those that read my column, and have recently opened up accounts as a result of their fondness for what they see here. If you have any questions at any time, you can reach me here on Disqus, or on Twitter @brooklyncowboy1. For those who dig the scene here, and would like to be part of it, registration on our home page is easy, and if you'd like, feel free to include my name in the referral box, and let me know, so I can try and get ya' some cool swag!


 

Belmont Park - 10/6

 

Race 1 -

1.Madame Ambassador

2.Paz the Wine

3.Louisiana Lady

#11 MADAME AMBASSADOR lost by less than three in the lone "second off the layoff" try, and Donk is a crisp 5:2-0-2 with mdn. clm. turf dashers who missed the baccala < 37 days ago & are below the 25-1 water mark ( $22 & $21 ), but eeesh...Cancel...  #1 PAZ THE WINE has burned a ton of bread against state breds, losing all nine at average odds of $3.24-1, but has in fact hit the board in her last quintet, so we'll leave beneath. #4 LOUISIANA LADY lost by only four against tougher, but you'll still be getting good odds today given the connections.  OFF TURF: 3-11-2-8-1

 

Race 2 -

1.Frostie Anne

2.Frosty Gal

3.Unbridledadventure

It's nearly impossible to ignore the last race figure of the #4 FROSTIE ANNE, as well as the speed that goes along with this gal. Can't understand why they're willing to part with her for a quarter today, but as the bug goes on, perhaps she came out of the last a mite "ouchy". Examine real well pre race. #3 FROSTY GAL ( owned by our good buddy Jack Knowlton and the rest of the fine folks at Sackatoga Stable ) has a shot if she can get back to that April effort; major jockey upgrade in play here and can complete the chilly exacta. #2 UNBRIDLEDADVENTURE is a bit light from a speed figure standpoint but shoots for the hat trick today & has hit the board in 5 of 6 at the trip.

 

Race 3 -

1.Tricky Escape

2.Perdona

3.Princess Gibraltar ( Fr )

#1 TRICKY ESCAPE appears to lay over this bunch, but we're curious as to why DeCarlo isn't aboard, as we saw him down at Kentucky Downs and thought her rode a flawless race in getting second with this one down there. Filly has yet to been out of the superfecta and should have no excuses in this compact field. #2 PERDONA needed no forgiveness for last, as she won her second straight down at Laurel over softer ground, and is a dazzling 3 for 4 at the dx. ( 0-9 otherwise ) so watch out. #3 PRINCESS GIBRALTAR (FR) finished 3rd behind a next out winner in last and gets a major jockey upgrade today. Oh yeah--shed four pounds as well.  OFF TURF: 2-3-1-4-5

 

Race 4 -

1.Silver Magnolia

2.Zeven

3.Flattermefabulous

These three and no more for all our rolling action. #3 SILVER MAGNOLIA won her only two starts when up for sale and digs this trip, as attested by a nice 2 for 8 mark at the dist., compared to being 1-8 at other dx.'s. Slight edge. #4 ZEVEN has a win & a third from her last two starts under nearly identical circumstances, and is logical once again. #2 FLATTERMEFABULOUS hasn't shown much since the claim and is now dropped 10 grand below the purchase price by Martin. Lone bright spot with this one is the 3 fer 8 record st the distance.  OFF TURF: 4-3-1-8-6

 

Race 5 -

1.Money Laundering

2.Thaddeus

3.The Pooch

#1 MONEY LAUNDERING apparently found the blinkers to his liking, as he went pillar to post to procure the sheepskin up north on 8/23, and while we like to exercise caution with using those hanging up a career best number off an equipment change, this ridgling ain't facing much and we're hoping that the light bulb has legitimately been turned on. Levine ( 15% by rote ) is 4 for 13 with one turn dirt runners who got the diploma 29-59 days back & are < 40-1, and just look at these prices: $16, $17, $10 & $25. #5 THADDEUS is another entering off a maiden score ( & a career best effort ), and...and...that's all I got. #2 THE POOCH as good as any for the show dough.  NOTE: AS OF 8:47 PST, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #11 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race 6 -

1.Startwithsilver

2.Buffalo Miss

3.Another Genius

#1 STARTWITHSILVER is in with a tag for the first time, but as these are "open" conditional foes, it's not really a drop, but actually ( by the class scale we use ) a slight step up, so be careful in that regards when handicapping. Anyway, Rice is 3 for 7 with mid level turfers at Belmont who missed the board 19-37 days back, and gal has worked well since the last. eek choice. #7 BUFFALO MISS finished a lively 3rd in lone "true" attempt in a 3rd off the layoff deal, and obviously we dig the draw & speed. #6 ANOTHER GENIUS is another who's third off the bench & gets in light.  OFF TURF: 1-3-4-5-6

 

Race 7 -

1.Side Tracks

2.Valiant Man

3.Frozen Angel

#4 SIDE TRACKS had a gutsy, but troubled trip when debuting at The Big A back in December of last year, but then as so often happens with babies, was sent to the shelf for one reason or another afterwards. Don't read too much into the turf return, as this one ain't really bred for the verde, and was a bit wound up at the onset before losing by less than three. Two of the five runners from that heat have since returned victorious, with the allotment having improved their speed #'s by an average of 5.2 points. #1 VALIANT MAN improved from the first start to the second, but then disappeared for a bit less than eight months, and now returns with a new conditioner & Johnny V. in the irons. Threat if able to return to the effort pre sabbatical. #6 FROZEN ANGEL was sharp in last and may last for a share with this group, despite the hike in class.  NOTE: AS OF 1:07 PST, DUE TO A VERY LATE SCRATCH THE #2 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race 8 -

1.Battlement ( GB )

2.Lucky Long

3.Morethanawarning

We won't be going any deeper than the top two for all our rolling action...  #8 BATTLEMENT (GB) dead heated for the place money going one turn right here back on the 22nd, and although the lone, local turf route in America was a bit of a disappointment, note that it was her first start in a while. Best effort came under the helmsmanship of Rosario. #1 LUCKY LONG probably has the best overall body of work in the field and goes out to in after losing by a bit over a length. #2 MORETHANAWARNING may plod along for a piece.  OFF TURF: 1-7-8-4-2

 

Race 9 -

1.Anna Liffey

2.Party Spot

3.Desert Affair

#3 ANNA LIFFEY went 0-20-42-44-52 over a stretch from early May to early July, before flopping badly up north ( where this level can be a mite steeper ) and showing zippo when having the hood removed in last. Transfers over to the Parker barn today, and conditioner who went on a "miraculous" streak earlier this year, recently had this one fire off a bullet of 48 & 2. Where the hell did that come from? In a crummy race such as this ( the cheapest race they can run on the grounds ), we'll pay $2 to find out. #7 PARTY SPOT has been facing open foes in her last duet & can send or rate; very live. #10 DESERT AFFAIR is rapidly approaching "professional maiden" status, as the 13:M-5-4 record belies, but we'd be remiss in excluding versus these, as she's hit the board twice here.

 

Belmont Park     ( Current ):     31-169 ( $319.60 )    Beatable Favorites  11-26 ( 42.3% )    Favorites  Win %    65-169  ( 38.5% )( As of Fri. morning )

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Pa. Derby/Cotil. ( Final )             1-2     ( $3.80 )       Beatable Favorites   0-0   ( N/A )         Favorites Win %      1-2     ( 50.0% )

Woodbine Mile   ( Final )            0-1     ( $0.00 )       Beatable Favorites    0-0   ( N/A )        Favorites Win %      1-1      ( 100% )

Kentucky Downs( Final ):           8-50   ( $61.00 )     Beatable Favorites    0-2   ( 0.0 % )     Favorites Win %     13-50   ( 26.0% )

Saratoga            ( Final ):          68-406 ( $651.00 )  Beatable Favorites    8-40 ( 20.0% )    Favorites Win %   135-406 ( 33.3% )

Los Alamitos      ( Final ):          19-67  ( $123.60 )    Beatable Favorites    2-7   ( 28.6% )   Favorites Win %    28-67   ( 41.8% )

Santa Anita       ( Final ):         67-319 ( $464.80 )    Beatable Favorites    8-33  ( 24.2% )   Favorites Win %  120-319 ( 37.6% )

Belmont Day     ( Final ):          1-13   ( $11.60 )       Beatable Favorites    0-0    ( N/A )       Favorites Win %   5-13     ( 38.5% )

Preakness Day  ( Final ):          1-14   ( $20.00 )      Beatable Favorites    1-2    ( 50,0% )   Favorites Win %   5-14     ( 35.7% )

Churchill Downs ( Final ):          0-1     ( $0.00 )       Beatable Favorites    0-1     ( 0.0% )    Favorites Win %   0-1       ( 0.0% )

Keeneland         ( Final ):        31-141 ( $276.60 )    Beatable Favorites    5-13   ( 38.5% )  Favorites Win %  58-141   ( 41.1% )

Gulfstream        ( Final ):       194-958 ( $1,801.00 ) Beatable Favorites    22-87 ( 25.3% )  Favorites Win %  344-958  ( 35.9% )

Santa Anita        ( Final ):            1-11   ( $4.40 )     Beatable Favorites      0-0   ( N/A )     Favorites Win %    4-11     ( 36.4% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2014-2017 Final ): 43-278   ( $407.80 ) Beatable Favorites: 16-44 ( 36.4% ) Favorite's Win %: 97-278  ( 34.9% )  +/-: -26.4% against a 17.1% takeout                          


Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-566      ( $819.20 )   Beatable Favorites : 15-68    ( 22.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 162 -585   ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks   2014-7 (All Final):1606-7347 ($12,744.10)Beatable Favorites : 226-818( 27.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 2699-7431( 36.3% ) +/-: -13.4%  against a 16.6% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 1691-7913 ($13,563.30)Beatable Favorites : 241-886( 27.2% ) Favorite's Win %: 2861-8016 ( 35.7% ) +/-: -14.3% against a 16.5% takeout


 CoxLA2017