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Profitable three bagger for us here yesterday, and we even had a succesful "Beatable Favorite" here, as well as Keeneland, where we banged out the $103 exacta box in the Shadwell Turf Mile !

Our charity drive ( info on yesterday's column ) generated $249 ( our end ), $100 ( JohnG032 on Twitter ) and $249 ( The Horse Psychic on Twitter ) to help rescue/aid sick and dying horses in Puerto Rico. That makes $575 total for the day and over $4,600 in total donations for three different charities for hurricane relief over the just 2 1/2 months from YOU---my readers. Thank you.

Don't forget, you can gleam our Keeneland Spinster knowledge today merely by going back one page to see our writeup !


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 1 - #5 Radiant Beauty  Race 4 - #8 Beyond Grace  Race 9 - #11 Prognostication


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Belmont Park - 10/8

 

Race 1 -

1.Kasbach

2.Night Owl

3.Bird Key

#7 KASBACH & #3 NIGHT OWL both hail from a barn that's a crisp 4 for 6 with runners fitting ALL of this exact criteria at odds of 4-1 or less ( $5.00 ROI ). We put the former on top because she looks to be a touch better bred for the gramma. #1A BIRD KEY finished an honest 4th behind a next out winner in the career starter, and is guaranteed to improve if for no other reason than you're not getting Leparoux on a rail closer.  OFF TURF: 1A-4-7-3-2  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #5 RADIANT BEAUTY absolutely fills the bill, as Rudy Rod is a miserable oh-fer-43 with maiden special weight turf routers off breaks of 97 days or less & 1-59 at all distances.

 

Race 2 -

1.Fancy Kitten

2.Ultimate Cause 

3.Tisbury

#1 FANCY KITTEN slides in from the 10 hole to the wood, is up for sale for the first time, and appears to lay over this allotment from an adjusted speed figure perspective; crushes. #6 ULTIMATE CAUSE is another who's available to be taken home today and they're pulling out all the stops as blinkers are added and a positive rider change is in play for this 3rd off the L/O runner. #5 TISBURY is yes---one more who has the "Buy Me" sticker attached to her rump this afternoon---and owns a nice collection of speed figs.  OFF TURF: 1-8-4-7-6

 

Race 3 -

1.Will Did It

2.Sir Bond

3.No Hiding Place 

#6 WILL DID IT gets in light & drops a bit in the second start off the claim; has performed well here & rates the slimmest of margins. #4 SIR BOND is about a 9% better runner over a fast track than the wet surface he hit the board on last time, so right off the bat we can expect some improvement today. Horse likes to nibble a bit so we'll keep beneath. #5 NO HIDING PLACE seemingly won this race 34 days ago, but there was no hiding from the stewards that afternoon, as he got disqualified to 4th for swerving a bit late in the game. No reason not to use right back. 

 

Race 4 -

1.Lezendary

2.Princess Char

3.Pecan Pattie

#3 LEZENDARY crushes these. #11 PRINCESS CHAR improved a little bit from the first start to the second, and sometimes in races like this with unproven runners, it's good to throw one with experience underneath---especially at big odds. #2 PECAN PATTIE has a couple of decently hidden workouts for today's overture, and when in doubt, go for a price.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #8 BEYOND GRACE doesn't make our first ( and only ) draft, and as we love our top choice so much...

 

Race 5 -

1.Galileo's Song ( Ire )

2.Evidently

3.Texting

#3 GALILEO'S SONG is 2 for 2 at this trip ( 0-5 at other distances ) and is second off the L/O today with a modicum of back class. Meeeekest of choices. #5 EVIDENTLY gets some much needed relief today for a trainer who very much needs a win. Numbers climbing over the last quartet, and this is a tough one to leave out. #1 TEXTING is 2 for 3 right here and rounds out the top three.  OFF TURF: 6-1-5-3-7 

 

Race 6 -

1.Samadi Sky

2.Startup Nation

3.Yummy Bear

#10 SAMADI SKY takes his first spin on the gramma today ( as well as going long for the 1st time ) and to be honest with you ( "Let me even moooorrrrre frank with you..." ) the breeding for the sod is somewhat better than that on the sand, and s few of the dirt efforts ain't all that bad. Bobby B. popped with a bomb here on Friday, and Rosario is but a nose shy of being 2 fer 2 with this one. Hmmm... #5 STARTUP NATION has been beset by a few layoff lines, but best efforts came at this dx., and five year old usually gives a good account of himself. #3 YUMMY BEAR has crashed the super in 10 of 11 and what the hell's wrong with that?  OFF TURF: 13(AE)-1A(MTO)-1-5-4 

 

Race 7 -

1.Strategic Dreams

2.Go

3.Drama Run

Frizette Stakes is up now, and with a win, Johnny V. becomes the all time leader in the race, which was won in it's inception by Bonnie Beryl https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frizette_Stakes ( trained by Sunny Jim Fitzsimmons ). #3 STRATEGIC DREAMS won by a pole in the Adirondacks at the end of August, and runner who could've been purchased that day is backed by a 3 for 8 trainer stat, as Rudy is just that with one turn graded dirt runners who just got the diploma & are < 24-1 ( $9, $12 & $27 ). Nice breeze at The Big A eight days ago tells us that this one is still feeling good, and we'll b e dreaming of double digit odds here. #2 GO & #5 DRAMA RUN are both trained by good guy Anthony Quartarolo who has been given a nice break by Looch, and been doing okay things with his stock. While the former does in fact step up in class, there's a sizzling 47 3/5 bullet breeze back on the 17th, and the latter hung up a big number when coasting over the Arlington poly this summer in her maiden breaker. 

 

Race 8 -

1.Grand Jete ( GB )

2.Dacita ( Chi )

3.Zhukova ( Ire )

We'll be going with these three & no more for all our rolling action in the Grade One Flower Bowl... #1 GRAND JETE got Rosarioed in the Beverly D., when having very little room with which to work late in the game, before squeezing through to dead heat for the place/show money. Castellano grabs the reins today, and there's a sensational DRF Formulator stat in play here as Brown is 18:10-2-3 with local graded turf stayers who crashed the party 38-76 days back & are between even money & 3-1 today ( $3.47 ROI ). Miss has won from he pine before & makes sense once again. #3 DACITA (CHI) was all out to best the above in aforementioned race, and aside from having that groovy kind of "declining" record that we like to see ( 19:10-4-1 ), 26% shedrow is 13:5-1-3 with just about the same categories listed above ( substituting "ITM" with "won last" and making the odds >1.50-1 & <4.50-1 ). Should be another whiz bang of a race. #4 ZHUKOVA (IRE) is 7 for 12 lifetime, and that merits inclusion any day of the week.  OFF TURF: 2-3-5-1-6

 

Race 9 -

1.Polar City

2.Alpha Team

3.Wingman

#2 POLAR CITY has been freshened since the claim by Rice, and not only are the two turn turf numbers decent enough with this one, but 22% clan is a nifty 4 for 8 with first off the claim mdclm. turf routers off breaks of less than 138 days ( $10, $14, $10 & $21 ). #9 ALPHA TEAM goes dirt to turf and takes the biggest drop in the biz for a Hall of Fame trainer; been working well and the back numeros are okay. #1 WINGMAN has a nice overall body of work & sheds the blinks this afternoon.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #11 PROGNOSTICATION is a few adjusted points below a couple of others signed on, so why would we accept favoritism?  OFF TURF:12-6-4-9-7 

 

Belmont Park     ( Current ):     36-189 ( $344.50 )    Beatable Favorites  11-27( 40.7% )    Favorites  Win %    70-189 ( 37.0% )( As of Sunday morning ) 

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Kee. Grade 1's (Current)            0-2    ( $0.00 )        Beatable Favorites   0-1   ( N/A )         Favorites Win %      0-2     ( 0.0% )

Pa. Derby/Cotil. ( Final )             1-2     ( $3.80 )       Beatable Favorites   0-0   ( N/A )         Favorites Win %      1-2     ( 50.0% )

Woodbine Mile   ( Final )            0-1     ( $0.00 )       Beatable Favorites    0-0   ( N/A )        Favorites Win %      1-1      ( 100% )

Kentucky Downs( Final ):           8-50   ( $61.00 )     Beatable Favorites    0-2   ( 0.0 % )     Favorites Win %     13-50   ( 26.0% )

Saratoga            ( Final ):          68-406 ( $651.00 )  Beatable Favorites    8-40 ( 20.0% )    Favorites Win %   135-406 ( 33.3% )

Los Alamitos      ( Final ):          19-67  ( $123.60 )    Beatable Favorites    2-7   ( 28.6% )   Favorites Win %    28-67   ( 41.8% )

Santa Anita       ( Final ):         67-319 ( $464.80 )    Beatable Favorites    8-33  ( 24.2% )   Favorites Win %  120-319 ( 37.6% )

Belmont Day     ( Final ):          1-13   ( $11.60 )       Beatable Favorites    0-0    ( N/A )       Favorites Win %   5-13     ( 38.5% )

Preakness Day  ( Final ):          1-14   ( $20.00 )      Beatable Favorites    1-2    ( 50,0% )   Favorites Win %   5-14     ( 35.7% )

Churchill Downs ( Final ):          0-1     ( $0.00 )       Beatable Favorites    0-1     ( 0.0% )    Favorites Win %   0-1       ( 0.0% )

Keeneland         ( Final ):        31-141 ( $276.60 )    Beatable Favorites    5-13   ( 38.5% )  Favorites Win %  58-141   ( 41.1% )

Gulfstream        ( Final ):       194-958 ( $1,801.00 ) Beatable Favorites    22-87 ( 25.3% )  Favorites Win %  344-958  ( 35.9% )

Santa Anita        ( Final ):            1-11   ( $4.40 )     Beatable Favorites      0-0   ( N/A )     Favorites Win %    4-11     ( 36.4% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2014-2017 Final ): 43-278   ( $407.80 ) Beatable Favorites: 16-44 ( 36.4% ) Favorite's Win %: 97-278  ( 34.9% )  +/-: -26.4% against a 17.1% takeout                          


Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-566      ( $819.20 )   Beatable Favorites : 15-68    ( 22.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 162 -585   ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks   2014-7 (All Final):1606-7347 ($12,744.10)Beatable Favorites : 226-818( 27.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 2699-7431( 36.3% ) +/-: -13.4%  against a 16.6% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 1691-7913 ($13,563.30)Beatable Favorites : 241-886( 27.2% ) Favorite's Win %: 2861-8016 ( 35.7% ) +/-: -14.3% against a 16.5% takeout


 CoxLA2017