KevinCoxItem


Finished the holiday weekeend on Monday with a profitable two bagger, and let's see if we can start out this week the same way. 


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 1 - #4 Go Kelly Go  Race 4 - #9 Golden Seal ( IF the #14 doesn't draw in )


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Belmont Park - 10/12

 

Race 1 -

1.My Roxy Girl

2.Rapid Route

3.Gata's Applause

#7 MY ROXY GIRL is the most proven runner in the field, and 10% Friedman is a whopping 5 for 8 with maiden claiming dirt sprinters who were in the money 1-2 fortnights ago & are below the 4-1 water mark ( $3.82 ROI ). #8 RAPID ROUTE begins her professional career today, and will be led over by an hombre who's 7:2-4-0 with 2YO FTS'ers under these conditions ( < 12-1 ). Johnny V. gets the call, and there's a nice work up at Oklahoma back on August 13th. #5 GATA'S APPLAUSE bested more than half the field first time out of the box and is eligible to improve of that effort.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #4 GO KELLY GO doesn't make our first draft, so why would we accept favoritism.

 

Race 2 -

1.Magician's Vanity

2.Winner's Dream

3.Tiz a Kitten

#8 MAGICIAN'S VANITY lost by just a neck in this race on 8/20, and ended up in a new barn afterwards for her efforts. Maker is the man ( 8 for 16 ) when entering fresh acquisitions in a two turn mid level turf event ( ITM in last ) off breaks of 35-71 days at 9-2 or less ( $2.80 ROI ). This one is a notorious nibbler, but one of two wins came from the outside and we like her chances. #6 WINNER'S DREAM has done decently enough in her triad of turf outings and is second off the claim for Jacobsen. #7 TIZ A KITTEN was a hard charging third going shorter and the number came back exceptionally strong.  OFF TURF: 2-4-1-6-7

 

Race 3 -

1.Mollica

2.Bar None

3.Prize Fight

#8 MOLLICA drops for the 3rd time in his last four outings, and despite the poor showing in last at 2-1, 12% barn more than triples that number ( 3-8 ) with locally based mid level dirt stock who were in the $ 13-25 days back, and just look at these prices--$42, $23 & $11 ! Lone win came at this trip. #9 BAR NONE has finished second in both starts since being claimed by Jacobsen, and switches from an apprentice to a journeyman today. #5 PRIZE FIGHT as good as any for the show dough. 

 

Race 4 -

1.Magnetron ( AE )

2.Now a Factor ( AE )

3.Purring on Empty

#14 MAGNTRON (AE) is on the outside looking in, but should he make it over to the races today, brings in tow the best last race speed figure as well as being backed by a delightful trainer's stat. Over the last five years, this barn is 3 for 8 with maiden special weight runners returning in less than 37 days ( $19, $40 & $32 ), and is a perfect 2 for 2 when excluding anything but turf in that sampling ( the higher priced winners ). #13 NOW A FACTOR (AE) is another who needs a couple to get the sniffles in order to make it over to the races today, but was s solid 3rd last time out and picks up Jose Ortiz today. #8 PURRING ON EMPTY was dropped by a dam who was a respectable 3-21 in turf routes ( 100K ), and you have Giant's Causeway in the family tree.  OFF TURF: 1-2-4-3-13(AE)  BEATABLE FAVORITE: ( If the top choice doesn't draw in ) #9 GOLDEN SEAL, as the turf pedigree is awful so not sure why he was installed as the M.L. favorite.  NOTE: AS OF 12:14, DUE TO TWO LATE SCRATCHES OUR SECOND AND THIRD CHOICES WILL BE THE #5 & #7 RESPECTIVELY.

 

Race 5 -

1.Thirtydaydinjune

2.Uno Dude

3.Daring Prospect

#4 THIRTYDAYSINJUNE was heading in the right direction earlier this year  ( in the money in 6 of 7 ) before being shelved for one reason or another after the June 16th start. That was her fourth outing in 29 days, so a break was definitely in order anyway, and can be a factor today if fully cranked. #2 UNO DUDE has the hood added today for the second off the L/O try, but as the front wraps were added in last, it would behoove you to examine pre race. #7 DARING PROSPECT finds herself at a career low level today.

 

Race 6 -

1.Catapult Jack ( AE ) 

2.Enchanted Forest

3.Alexander David

Not really feeling the mojo here so tread lightly... #13 CATAPULT JACK (AE) has won of the worst cases of seconditis that you'll ever see ( five straight & 9 of 18 on the whole ) and it's not for a lack of effort, as most of the comment lines read "game". Gelding is about 35% better on the green than the brown and we'll definitely take a shot at double digit odds. #8 ENCHANTED FOREST lost by only a neck in a similar spot three weeks ago & is 3rd off the layoff today. #9 ALEXANDER DAVID hasn't seen the scene in quite some time, but numbers earned pre layoff were solid enough, and rates a chance if fully geared up.  OFF TURF: 1-9-11-16-5  NOTE: DUE TO A KEY LATE SCRATCH, WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS ENTIRELY TO 4-12-6.

 

Race 7 -

1.Economic Model

2.Red Rifle

3.Vulcan's Forge

#1 ECONOMIC MODEL has been beset by some layoff lines, but is clearly the class of this field, having tangled with some toughies such as Connect, Divining Rod, Sharp Azteca, Destrin, Drefong & Stallwalkin Dude. Recent form is off, but colt likes it here, and Brown don't frown with optional dirt runners at Belmont off breaks of 50-100 days ( < 6-1 ) as he's 4 for 6 in that regards with s $3.86 ROI. Jacobsen thought enough of the #5 RED RIFLE to plunk down a C-Note for him back on the 20th, and that's a hell of a lot for a seven year old, so obviously he loves this one's propensity for hitting the board ( 16 of 33 in the exacta ) as there's probably plenty left in the tank here. #7 VULCAN'S FORGE was beamed right into the winner's circle in last, as this one is now 3:2-0-1 on the dirt in non graded company. ( Two for two here as well. )

 

Race 8 -

1.Weekend Express

2.Snap Decision

3.Strike Midnight

#2 WEEKEND EXPRESS hasn't been up for sale in his last 25 starts---until today that is. Hey, Hills has done okay with this one, so it's not quite a panicky move, and Javier has hit the board twice in as many tries with this one. Slim margin. #9 SNAP DECISION has been a part of the super in his last eight and has eye cups added by Shug today; logical. #5 STRIKE MIDNIGHT is confidently hiked up in class today in first start off the claim by Serpe, and has done his best work right here.  OFF TURF: 3-4-9-8(MTO)-6

 

Race 9 -

1.Brianbakescookies

2.Admirals Cove

3.Herecomesyourman

#5 BRIANBAKESCOOKIES had a troubled trip in latest, but still got up for second in a game effort in just his second start with a tag. Beginning to give the impression of becoming that kind of a maiden, but any trepidation we have is assuaged by the fact that C-Squared is a groovy 11:6-3-1 with maiden claiming turf routers who hit the board 17-35 days ago & are < 5-1 ( $3.39 return on investment ). Winner from that afternoon came back to get the job done again, improving his speed figure ten points in the process. #10 ADMIRALS COVE is 3rd off the layoff today & should be coming late. #6 HERECOMESYOURMAN has enough tactical speed to be a factor.  OFF TURF: 9-2-7-10-12


Belmont Park     ( Current ):     39-206 ( $372.10 )    Beatable Favorites  13-30( 43.3% )    Favorites  Win %    78-206 ( 37.9% ) 

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Kee. Grade 1's (Current)             0-3    ( $0.00 )        Beatable Favorites   0-1   ( N/A )         Favorites Win %      0-3     ( 0.0% )

Pa. Derby/Cotil. ( Final )             1-2     ( $3.80 )       Beatable Favorites   0-0   ( N/A )         Favorites Win %      1-2     ( 50.0% )

Woodbine Mile   ( Final )            0-1     ( $0.00 )       Beatable Favorites    0-0   ( N/A )        Favorites Win %      1-1      ( 100% )

Kentucky Downs( Final ):           8-50   ( $61.00 )     Beatable Favorites    0-2   ( 0.0 % )     Favorites Win %     13-50   ( 26.0% )

Saratoga            ( Final ):          68-406 ( $651.00 )  Beatable Favorites    8-40 ( 20.0% )    Favorites Win %   135-406 ( 33.3% )

Los Alamitos      ( Final ):          19-67  ( $123.60 )    Beatable Favorites    2-7   ( 28.6% )   Favorites Win %    28-67   ( 41.8% )

Santa Anita       ( Final ):         67-319 ( $464.80 )    Beatable Favorites    8-33  ( 24.2% )   Favorites Win %  120-319 ( 37.6% )

Belmont Day     ( Final ):          1-13   ( $11.60 )       Beatable Favorites    0-0    ( N/A )       Favorites Win %   5-13     ( 38.5% )

Preakness Day  ( Final ):          1-14   ( $20.00 )      Beatable Favorites    1-2    ( 50,0% )   Favorites Win %   5-14     ( 35.7% )

Churchill Downs ( Final ):          0-1     ( $0.00 )       Beatable Favorites    0-1     ( 0.0% )    Favorites Win %   0-1       ( 0.0% )

Keeneland         ( Final ):        31-141 ( $276.60 )    Beatable Favorites    5-13   ( 38.5% )  Favorites Win %  58-141   ( 41.1% )

Gulfstream        ( Final ):       194-958 ( $1,801.00 ) Beatable Favorites    22-87 ( 25.3% )  Favorites Win %  344-958  ( 35.9% )

Santa Anita        ( Final ):            1-11   ( $4.40 )     Beatable Favorites      0-0   ( N/A )     Favorites Win %    4-11     ( 36.4% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2014-2017 Final ): 43-281   ( $407.80 ) Beatable Favorites: 16-45 ( 35.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 97-281  ( 34.5% )  +/-: -26.4% against a 17.1% takeout                          


Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-566      ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-66   ( 22.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 162 -585   ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks   2014-7 (All Final):1606-7350 ($12,744.10)Beatable Favorites : 226-819( 27.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 2699-7434( 36.3% ) +/-: -13.3%  against a 16.6% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 1691-7916 ($13,563.30)Beatable Favorites : 241-887( 27.2% ) Favorite's Win %: 2861-8019 ( 35.7% ) +/-: -14.3% against a 16.5% takeout


 CoxLA2017