KevinCoxItem


Just a chalky pair for us here yesterday.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s):  Race 7 - #11 Altar Boy


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Belmont Park - 10/13 - Friday the 13th...Boo !!

 

Race 1 -

1.Archival

 2.There They Go

3.Ghost Chaser

#1 ARCHIVAL got the diploma snatched right outta his hooves in last when being sent down to 6th after a mishap here on the 22nd. The good news is, is that Jacobsen is a whopping 8 for 18 with 2nd off the claim maiden claiming stock off breaks of 1-2 fortnights ( positive ROI with that sampling, as well ). #2 THERE THEY GO was the one who got smashed in the heat mentioned above, but discounting that deal, this one will now be going one turn over a fast strip for just the second time. Sometimes you can get inflated odds on runners such as this who didn't finish their last outing. #4 GHOST CHASER has a nice 414 Tommy for the career starter, and was purchased at auction for just about 2 1/2 times the breeding price. "Diamond in the Rough" theory in play here with a bullet work smack dab in the middle of six ordinary moves. Note that this is the first starter out of a dam who was 2 fer 6 in dirt sprints ( 88K ), and of course the sire needs no introduction.

 

Race 2 -

1.Pedro Cerrano

2.Ifyousnoozeyoulose

3.Major League

#3 PEDRO CERRANO caught a fastball ( because curveballs are his weakness ) and knocked it out of the park at Del Mar on August 24th, winning in a nearly identical spot by nearly four as the chalk. There was a claim that day, but it was voided for one reason or another ( California voids more claims than anywhere else in the country, and quite often those horses come back to win ). Lands in the Jacobsen barn today, and he's a nifty 8:4-2-0 with locally based mid level runners off 32-64 day layoffs in between even money & 3-1 ( new runners being handed over ). The ROI for that study is $2.65 ROI and Dylan shouldn't need any crazy voodoo to get this one into the winner's circle. #2 IFYOUSNOOZEYOULOSE will forever be one of my favorite horses, and those who follow us closely know exactly why. $53,000 Pick 5's aside, runner is perfectly spotted today, given the strong effort two back. Note that this one scored in his only third off the L/O try. #7 MAJOR LEAGUE ( yes folks---we have Pedro Cerrano & Major League in the same race ! ) is 3 for 7 at the trip ( 0-5 at other distances ) and may be able to steal 3rd base ( place ? ) a la Willie Mays Hays today. ( And in an update as I type the 6th race, the Indians lose, so not sure how this plays in to my selections here ! )

 

Race 3 -

1.Build to Suit

2.True Timber

3.Cinderella El Chrome

#5 BUILD TO SUIT has won 4 of 5 , is 2 of 2 right here, and Brown ( 26% day to day ) is 10:6-2-1-1 with allowance dirt runners at Elmont who won less than 98 days ago & are beneath 4-1 today ( $3.36 ROI ). Perfectly drawn. #4 TRUE TIMBER was in some deep waters earlier in the year, but gets appreciable class relief today and has been freshened up a bit. #3 CINDERELLA EL CHROME has done some really good work since the third start of the year and drops some weight ( albeit a pound ) off a win---an angle we've always liked.

 

Race 4 -

1.Wanna Be Regal

2.Out of Nowhere

3.Youth Gone Wild

#5 WANNA BE REGAL hasn't shown much in her last triad, but the debut was okay, and given there was a nice gate breeze just prior to the last, we're willing to be a bit forgiving, given the trouble encountered at the start. #4 OUT OF NOWHERE is a professional maiden, but gal has been a part of the super the last three times she went short on the gramma, and drops in class, weight, and distance. #9 YOUTH GONE WILD has improved over her last sextet & makes sense with these.  OFF TURF: 10-16(MTO)-1-9-5   NOTE: AS OF 11:40, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #8 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race 5 -

1.Northern

2.Ventry Bay

3.Sethary

#10 NORTHERN tries the lawn for the first time today, but has speed an an advantageous post. Timid choice. #9 VENTRY BAY missed by only a honker down in Franklin, and is reunited with Johnny V. today who won just prior to that. Totally usable. #4 SETHARY hung up a sensational number when grabbing the sheepskin a half'a month ago, but as it was more than 20 points higher, we'll assume it was the exception rather than the rule and slide him underneath.  OFF TURF: 3-6-5-10-8  NOTE: AS OF 11:41, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #7 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race 6 -

1.Mr. Skittles

2.Five Star Bunt

3.Mr. Hot Rocks

#5 MR. SKITTLES hasn't shown much in the mornings, but barn ( from a small sampling ) is 2 for 4 with firsters in sprint races ( $10 & $8 ) and there's some decent pedigree in the family tree. #2 FIVE STAR BUNT has improved with each and every start, and the winner two starts back won the Funny Cide before a flat effort in the Champagne. #6 MR. HOT ROCKS is another who you can point an upwards arrow next to and is in for a tag for the first time today.

 

Race 7 -

1.Spin Cycle

2.Lewis Vale

3.Poshsky

#3 SPIN CYCLE has shown improved early hoof over all five starts this year, culminating with a game second place finish right here on 9/21. Granted, it came against state breds with some soft fractions, but gelding positively loves dis joint ( 3 for 6, compared to an 0 for 8 ledger otherwise ), and 13% clan is 7:3-2-0 with mid level two turn turn stock who were ITM 15-29 days ago ( $7, $8 & $9 ). #4 LEWIS VALE lost by less than a length in last and that may be somewhat attributed to a bit of clumsiness at the onset. Nonetheless, the number came back okay and this one should probably be included. #6 POSHSKY once faced Hoppertunity in the ( no longer Hollywood ) Gold Cup, but is now entered at the lowest level of his career. Love the "declining" record both on the turf AND overall, and Franco has been better over the last 10 days than the rest of the meet.  OFF TURF: 1-2-4-1A(MTO)-10  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #11 ALTAR BOY is a few points shy of a couple of others from a speed figure perspective, so we'll pass at 3-1.

 

Race 8 -

1.A Lot

2.Team Colors

3.Vision Perfect

Toughest race of the day. The #6 hasn't been seen in A LOT of time, but five year old is 4:1-3-0 in first off of "true" layoffs, and 26% shedrow nearly doubles their rate with runners fitting this criteria off hibernations of 228-456 days ( even money to 3-1 ). #5 TEAM COLORS is 1 for 2 in 3rd off the layoff deals & is 3'1-1-0 locally. #8 VISION PERFECT rounds out the top three.  OFF TURF: 5-7-2-1-6

 

Race 9 -

1.Guy American Dream

2.I'm Not Funny ( AE )

3.Three Goals

We have just one proven runner here. All of the trainer's have "ohfer" stats in all pertinent categories. Seems like a nice race to look for a price. #8 GUY AMERICAN DREAM is a half to a 1-4 dirt sprinter ( 25K ), was dropped by a dam who was 2 fer 9 at this dance ( 22G ), and paternal grand dam was 2-3 doing the same. Ain't no world beaters in here. #11 I'M NOT FUNNY (AE) was purchased for just a grand at auction last year, so you'd have to think there's a more deserving spot for this one in Canandaigua County, no? Interesting the he's here, and F.L. rider slated to take the call when he could be enjoying his one day off in a five day stretch. #3 THREE GOALS ( by Hat Trick---ya get it? ) has been getting a lot of bottom in him up at Oklahoma, which is we like to see in our firsters.  NOTE: AS OF 11:43, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #2 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Belmont Park     ( Current ):     41-215 ( $382.10 )    Beatable Favorites  13-31( 41.9% )      Favorites  Win %    82-206 ( 37.9% )( As of Friday morn. )

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Kee. Grade 1's (Current)             0-3    ( $0.00 )        Beatable Favorites   0-1   ( N/A )         Favorites Win %      0-3     ( 0.0% )

Pa. Derby/Cotil. ( Final )             1-2     ( $3.80 )       Beatable Favorites   0-0   ( N/A )         Favorites Win %      1-2     ( 50.0% )

Woodbine Mile   ( Final )            0-1     ( $0.00 )       Beatable Favorites    0-0   ( N/A )        Favorites Win %      1-1      ( 100% )

Kentucky Downs( Final ):           8-50   ( $61.00 )     Beatable Favorites    0-2   ( 0.0 % )     Favorites Win %     13-50   ( 26.0% )

Saratoga            ( Final ):          68-406 ( $651.00 )  Beatable Favorites    8-40 ( 20.0% )    Favorites Win %   135-406 ( 33.3% )

Los Alamitos      ( Final ):          19-67  ( $123.60 )    Beatable Favorites    2-7   ( 28.6% )   Favorites Win %    28-67   ( 41.8% )

Santa Anita       ( Final ):         67-319 ( $464.80 )    Beatable Favorites    8-33  ( 24.2% )   Favorites Win %  120-319 ( 37.6% )

Belmont Day     ( Final ):          1-13   ( $11.60 )       Beatable Favorites    0-0    ( N/A )       Favorites Win %   5-13     ( 38.5% )

Preakness Day  ( Final ):          1-14   ( $20.00 )      Beatable Favorites    1-2    ( 50,0% )   Favorites Win %   5-14     ( 35.7% )

Churchill Downs ( Final ):          0-1     ( $0.00 )       Beatable Favorites    0-1     ( 0.0% )    Favorites Win %   0-1       ( 0.0% )

Keeneland         ( Final ):        31-141 ( $276.60 )    Beatable Favorites    5-13   ( 38.5% )  Favorites Win %  58-141   ( 41.1% )

Gulfstream        ( Final ):       194-958 ( $1,801.00 ) Beatable Favorites    22-87 ( 25.3% )  Favorites Win %  344-958  ( 35.9% )

Santa Anita        ( Final ):            1-11   ( $4.40 )     Beatable Favorites      0-0   ( N/A )     Favorites Win %    4-11     ( 36.4% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2014-2017 Final ): 43-281   ( $407.80 ) Beatable Favorites: 16-45 ( 35.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 97-281  ( 34.5% )  +/-: -26.4% against a 17.1% takeout                          


Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-566      ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-66   ( 22.7% ) Favorite's Win %: 162 -585   ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks   2014-7 (All Final):1606-7350 ($12,744.10)Beatable Favorites : 226-819( 27.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 2699-7434( 36.3% ) +/-: -13.3%  against a 16.6% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 1691-7916 ($13,563.30)Beatable Favorites : 241-887( 27.2% ) Favorite's Win %: 2861-8019 ( 35.7% ) +/-: -14.3% against a 16.5% takeout


 CoxLA2017