KevinCoxItem


 Just a reminder that I'll be giving a seminar at Wehrle OTB @ 1042 Wehrle Dr., Williamsville, NY on Oct 21st, 12-1PM.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 1 -  #1 Marriedtothemusic  Race 2 - #6 Artic Storm Cat  Race 7 - #5 Still Krz


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Belmont Park - 10/20

 

Race 1 -

1.Praetereo

2.For Greater Glory

3.Flowers for Lisa

#6 PRAETEREO loathed the grass in Mass. 2 1/2 months ago, but nine year old has wisely been given a freshening by Steve Klesaris, and doesn't this $700,000 earner deserve it? Anyway, 17% barn is a whopping 13:7-2-0 with locally based mid level stock off absences of 38-123 days, and just look at that ROI  --- ( right here ! ) $5.29 !! #5 FOR GREATER GLORY has decent numbers & goes turf to dirt as well as to turns to one. Sensible. #3 FLOWERS FOR LISA is 4-10 at this trip, compared to being 2-21 going other distances of ground. Our buddy Dylan takes over for this shipper.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #1 MARRIEDTOTHEMUSIC is 0-1 in 3rd off the L/O situations, and while the 2 for 10 mark when breaking from posts 1-4 is okay, keep in mind that this one is an amazing 8 for 13 from the five hole on out. 

 

Race 2 -

1.Brooklyn Speights

2.Silky Way

3.Fleet Admiral

#4 BROOKLYN SPEIGHTS ( Dig it ) has hit the board in his last quintet of turf routes, and while a nibbler by nature ( 6:M-4-1 at Elmont ), Ward happens to be 7 for 17 with runners of this ilk who crashed the party 23-47 days ago & has a $2.71 return on investment with that sampling. #8 SILKY WAY has beaten eight home in his last five, but loses the hood today & Junior sticks around. #9 FLEET ADMIRAL sheds some weight ( I'm jelly ) and could spice thinks up at a price.  OFF TURF: 4-6-5-8-3  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #6 ARTIC STORM CAT

 

Race 3 -

1.Mask

2.Navistar

3.Westerdale

Straight to the trainer's stats, so let's be succinct here. With ALL pertinent categories, Brown ( #4 MASK ) is 2-4 with the winners paying $4 & $5 ( at 5-1 or less ), Pletcher ( #5 NAVISTAR ) is 11-29 with an ROI of $2.12 ( at 5-1 or less ), and Morley ( #2 WESTERDALE ) is 2 for 6 w/mutuels of $11 & $21 at odds of < 25-1. It's 1:09 A.M., and that's all I have to say about that. 

 

Race 4 -

1.Son of Oahu

2.Mascarello

3.Hello Holiday

#2 SON OF OAHU is 5:1-1-0 here ( compared to being 13:0-1-4 elsewhere ) and rates the meekest of selections in a wide open heat. #9 MASCARELLO has put together three consecutive solid efforts ( none at less than 5-1 ), and shows a bullet work at the deep Oklahoma training track for this. #5 HELLO HOLIDAY is in for his lowest price yet and lone win came over this course, Record in races without trouble: 2:1-0-1....Record in races with trouble: 4-0-0-0. Watch out.  OFF TURF: 5-7(MTO)-8-9-2  NOTE: AS OF 12:26, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #3 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race 5 -

1.Court Dancer

2.Bluegrass Jamboree

3.Shimmering Moon

#3 COURT DANCER is one for two when put up for sale, and this hard knocking six year old mare has more than earned he keep over the years, banking nearly half'a mil. Servis ain't nervous with optional dirt runners going one turn off breaks off 43-85 days ( even money to 3-1 ) as he's 6-16 with that type, and has a positive ROI as well. Irad with a 3:1-0-1 mark in tandem w/this gal. #4 BLUEGRASS JAMBOREE has never missed the exacta in five starts, and has excellent tactical speed as well as familiarity with Franco. #2 SHIMMERING MOON is 2-2-2 in her last six fast track outings, and is reunited with the capable bug who was aboard for the tally two starts back. Third start off the "true" layoff today, and the only other time that occurred, a placing was the end result. 

 

Race 6 -

1.Dream Trip

2.Itsabigboy

3.Long Night

#8 DREAM TRIP hasn't been seen since just before Saint Patrick's Day, but Lynch knows how to have 'em prepped off a hiatus, and this one returns sans tes-tee-klees. Only start when available for purchase resulted in a win, and the adjusted numbers from earlier in the year are as good--if not better than several in here. #6 ITSABIGBOY has improved in each & every start thus far, and was recently snagged by Cox ( dig it ) off of a gutsy third place finish. Over the last 260 weeks, the 26% barn is a nice 10-24  ( a "10-24" was a past assault when I was on the job ) with fresh acquisitions in two turn turf races at odds of less than 6-1 ( $2.70 ROI ). Saez takes over and he's one of our faves. #9 LONG NIGHT got smacked around in the first start off the claim for Summers, and is more properly spotted today.  OFF TURF: 6-1-8-3-9

 

Race 7 -

1.Dancetrack 

2.Schivarelli

3.Anytime Anyplace

There are three small, but intriguing trainer stats in play here, so let's hop to it! #2 DANCETRACK makes his first try on the sand today, but the dirt pedigree is better than the turf, and the turf numbers ain't half bad. Jacobsen claimed this one for himself, and he happens to be 2 for 5 when going green to brown with first off the claim one turn dirt stock between 5-1 & 15-1 ( ITM last ). #7 SCHIVARELLI won his only start here on September 17, and pre-claim pilot returns, which is always an angle of ours. Speaking of that claim, 12% shedrow is 2 for 5 with new purchases going 1X on the dirt in 3rd off the L/O deals ( $7 & $4 ). #4 ANYTIME ANYPLACE put forth one of the worst efforts of his career when shipped down to Maryland 41 days ago, but 12% shotcaller is 3 fer 10 with mid level dirt runners at Belmont off absences of 27-55 days ( > 4-1 & < 12-1 ), The winners came back a robust $22, $17 & $11, and fella gets in light.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #5 STILL KRZ fills the bill, as Rice is 0-4 with first off the claim, second off the layoff runners right here.  NOTE: AS OF 12:27, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #1 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race 8 -

1.Black Sea ( Fr ) 

2.Call Provision

3.Holiday Star

Chad Brown has only stepped a horse up in class 50% or more one time in the last five years---and that horse won, paying $8. We have the same thing in play here with the #7 BLACK SEA (FR), and this gelding recently won in his only local try ( beneath Javy ), and chap seems live. #6 CALL PROVISION is the second half of the uncoupled entry with the above, and has that nice kind of "declining" record that we love to see ( 11:5-2-1 ) as it shows he knows where the line is. There's some back class here, too. #3 HOLIDAY STAR as good as any for the show "pan".  OFF TURF: 3-6-2-5(MTO)-4 

 

Race 9 -

1.Little Schmo

2.Southern Union

3.Combat Controller

#3 LITTLE SCHMO was positively awful in the comebacker and is promptly dropped to a lifetime low by Nevin today. The good news is that the trainer is 4 for 8 with 2nd off the shelf mid level dirt runners right here at odds of less than 7-1 ( OTB in last ), and the mutuels for that study are $7, $7, $16 & $8. #4 SOUTHERN UNION is a nibblah by nature, but Ibrahim more than doubles his regular 13% batting average with runners of this ilk off layoffs of 38 days or less ( > 4-1 & < 16-1 ). The ROI for that sampling is a large $5.61, and as this one has never been in with this kind of a feather in 29 prior starts, you should probably incorporate into the mix. #7 COMBAT CONTROLLER hails from a barn which is 2 for 5 when adding the eye cups to freshly claimed dirt runners ( < 30-1 ), with payoffs of $14 & $8.  NOTE: AS OF 12:28, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #5 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 


Belmont Park     ( Current ):     50-261 ( $426.20 )    Beatable Favorites  17-45( 37.8% )     Favorites  Win %  104-261 ( 39.9% )( As of Friday morning )

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Kee. Grade 1's (Current)             0-3    ( $0.00 )        Beatable Favorites   0-1   ( N/A )         Favorites Win %      0-3     ( 0.0% )

Pa. Derby/Cotil. ( Final )             1-2     ( $3.80 )       Beatable Favorites   0-0   ( N/A )         Favorites Win %      1-2     ( 50.0% )

Woodbine G1's   ( Final )            0-2     ( $0.00 )       Beatable Favorites    0-1   ( N/A )        Favorites Win %      1-2     ( 50.0% )

Kentucky Downs( Final ):           8-50   ( $61.00 )     Beatable Favorites    0-2   ( 0.0 % )     Favorites Win %     13-50   ( 26.0% )

Saratoga            ( Final ):          68-406 ( $651.00 )  Beatable Favorites    8-40 ( 20.0% )    Favorites Win %   135-406 ( 33.3% )

Los Alamitos      ( Final ):          19-67  ( $123.60 )    Beatable Favorites    2-7   ( 28.6% )   Favorites Win %    28-67   ( 41.8% )

Santa Anita       ( Final ):         67-319 ( $464.80 )    Beatable Favorites    8-33  ( 24.2% )   Favorites Win %  120-319 ( 37.6% )

Belmont Day     ( Final ):          1-13   ( $11.60 )       Beatable Favorites    0-0    ( N/A )       Favorites Win %   5-13     ( 38.5% )

Preakness Day  ( Final ):          1-14   ( $20.00 )      Beatable Favorites    1-2    ( 50,0% )   Favorites Win %   5-14     ( 35.7% )

Churchill Downs ( Final ):          0-1     ( $0.00 )       Beatable Favorites    0-1     ( 0.0% )    Favorites Win %   0-1       ( 0.0% )

Keeneland         ( Final ):        31-141 ( $276.60 )    Beatable Favorites    5-13   ( 38.5% )  Favorites Win %  58-141   ( 41.1% )

Gulfstream        ( Final ):       194-958 ( $1,801.00 ) Beatable Favorites    22-87 ( 25.3% )  Favorites Win %  344-958  ( 35.9% )

Santa Anita        ( Final ):            1-11   ( $4.40 )     Beatable Favorites      0-0   ( N/A )     Favorites Win %    4-11     ( 36.4% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2014-2017 Final ): 43-282   ( $407.80 ) Beatable Favorites: 16-46 ( 34.8% ) Favorite's Win %: 97-282  ( 34.4% )  +/-: -26.4% against a 17.1% takeout                          


Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-568      ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68     ( 22.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 163 -587   ( 27.8% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks   2014-7 (All Final):1606-7349 ($12,744.10)Beatable Favorites : 226-819( 27.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 2698-7432( 36.3% ) +/-: -13.3%  against a 16.6% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 1691-7917 ($13,563.30)Beatable Favorites : 241-887( 27.2% ) Favorite's Win %: 2861-8019 ( 35.7% ) +/-: -14.3%  against a 16.5% takeout


 CoxLA2017