KevinCoxItem


Blanked on the card yesterday, but those who pay heed to our "unders" were amply rewarded with some early Christmas money

--Three Exacta Boxes of $57, $12 & $75

--Three Rolling Daily Doubles of $12, $56 & $358 !! ( Our fourth straight day with an exacta box or rolling double of $235 or more )

--A $266 Triple Box

--And a $577 Rolling Pick Three !!

I want to wish everyone here a VERY Merry Christmas, and hope we can stuff your stockings a little more today !!

 

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!

Oh, and as for Aqueduct, when we say "Aqueduct dirt" it is excluding the now defunct inner track, and we do NOT use any turf stats from the main turf course when handicapping the inner.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


I want to thank those that read my column, and have recently opened up accounts as a result of their fondness for what they see here. If you have any questions at any time, you can reach me here on Disqus, or on Twitter @brooklyncowboy1. For those who dig the scene here, and would like to be part of it, registration on our home page is easy, and if you'd like, feel free to include my name in the referral box, and let me know, so I can try and get ya' some cool swag!


 

Aqueduct - 12/23 - Merry Christmas everyone !!

 

Race 1 -

1.Peculiar Sensation

2.Ten Twenty Nine

3.Honor and Pleasure

#7 PECULIAR SENSATION makes his first start for Handal today, and 15% conditioner is a wonderful 11:6-2-2 when going turf to dirt off breaks of 19-42 days at odds of 15-1 or less, and the payouts were pretty nifty ( $29, $6, $11, $7, $5 & $6 ). Best work has come beneath Franco, and gelding finds himself at his lowest level to date. #4 TEN TWENTY NINE ain't just the day after my birthday ( go ahead, write it down ! ), but it's also police jargon for a past crime ( a crime "other than" Robbery, Burglary, Larceny, Assault and Trespass...or as they taught us in the academy to remember it "Roast Beef Lettuce And Tomato" !! ), and is also a chronic nibblah who seems to close out the exacta quite often ( six times in 14 dirt outings ). Logical "unders" candidate; 11% shotcaller is 3-10 with mid level dirt stock off sabbaticals of 9-19 days ( < 15-1 ), with payoffs of $7, $12 & $11. #3 HONOR AND PLEASURE has speed and won his only second off the L/O try. 

 

Race 2 -

1.Pence

2.St. Patrick Frost

3.Bear Right

How can you not love PENCE ? I mean, whatever numbers he's produced have been solid ones, his boss is making wonderful decisions these days, and always gives a good account of himself. ( Oh yeah, there's a near perfect 6 for 7 trainer stat in play here with locally based maiden claiming dirt dashers in the 15-24 day range ! ) #8 ST. PATRICK FROST finished just a length and a half behind the above in last, but will be overlooked given the low percentage connections, and best two efforts have come over this oval. #7 BEAR RIGHT hasn't shown much in the mornings, but sire was 2 for 9 in dirt dashes, dam finished second in her only dirt sprint, and from the smallest of samplings, 10% clan is 2:1-1-0 with first time starters in maiden claiming dirt events at 60-1 or beneath ( $10 ). 

 

Race 3 -

1.Tap Tap Taparoo

2.Mad Dog Matters

3.Lady Suebee

These three and no more for all our rolling action. #2 TAP TAP TAPAROO immolated baccala in the goo on 11/22, but has the hood added, and they were most likely affixed for the scorching bullet on Monday. Rosario gets the call, as Irad is on a must ride for Brown. #1 MAD DOG MATTERS hasn't been seen since Toga, but catches a fast track fo the first time and is still protected against the claim. #7 LADY SUEBEE is no worse than 3rd in this spot ( for those looking to make a dime on their two dollar investment ), given the solid debut number ( when a well beaten & well clear runner up ) as well as an ideal draw.  NOTE: AS OF 11:46, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #5 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION. 

 

Race 4 -

1.Blewitt

2.Ro Bear

3.Broman Entry

#4 BLEWITT all the way. #6 RO BEAR is 2 for 8 over a glib surface, and Dylan always tries hard for the minor spoils. Either half of the Broman owned entry ( #1 CLUTCH CARGO/#1A HEART IN HAND ) is capable enough to grab the stocking stuffer money. 

 

Race 5 -

1.Fox Rules

2.Helooksthepart

3.Full Salute

Toughest and most competitive race of the day, and as we were unable to eliminate any runners on our first draft, we ended up utilizing the DRF Formulator quite a bit. #2 FOX RULES is a soon to be nine year old who is as simply as game as they come in making his 50th start today. Runner has the quintessentially perfect "declining" record that we love to see on the dirt ( 27:11-4-1 ), is 3 fer 7 at the trip, has loads of speed, and from a small sampling, Cannizzo is 2 for 2 with optional dirt runners going short in the 116-232 day bracket ( $16 & $10 ). Elder statesman has fired well fresh, so don't let the elongated break dissuade you. Grab the Fox by the tail to get the glory. #5 HELOOKSTHEPART has been a popular item at the claim box of late, being snagged in his last two & three of seven. Diodoro confidently hikes this one up in class today, and he's actually 5 for 8 when doing such by 50% or more with dirt sprinters who have won their most recent ( $2.84 ROI ). #3 FULL SALUTE ( cross entered yesterday so check the changes ) makes first start for Gargan today, and Danny boy ( 21% day to day ) is 12:4-2-2 when being handed a runner & spotting them in a dirt dash off a hibernation of 62-124 days ( $3, $5, $6 & $52 ). Chestnut runner is another who knows where the line is & won both his starts when toting 115 pounds. Watch out.  NOTE: AS OF 11:48, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #6 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race 6 -

1.Nolinski

2.Cain Is Abel

3.Flash Drive

We won't be going any deeper than this troika for all our rolling action. #12 NOLINSKI posted a career best # when trying the sand for the first time, and has the eye cups added while breaking from the outside. Note that the three from that day who have come back to run have amassed a 3:1-0-1 mark ( from two different races ) with an average Beyer improvement of four points. #4 CAIN IS ABEL begins his professional career today with a couple of decent works in tow, and is a full to a 2 for 6 dirt sprinter who banked nearly 100K. Junior does well for this barn. #6 FLASH DRIVE has oodles of speed & has ascended the Beyer ladder with each and every start, but front wraps were added in last, so be careful. 

 

Race 7 -

1.Do Share

2.Life in Shambles

3.Great Stuff

Traditional Gravesend Stakes on tap here, and you MUST read the history of the track for which this race is named. Did you know that the Preakness was held there for 15 years ?? Go here https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gravesend_Race_Track !  As for the race itself, there are three sublime trainer stats in play here, so let's get to 'em in a no frills manner. #2 DO SHARE: Rice is 4 for 6 with second off the L/O ungraded dirt sprinters who won their last & are ( hold on, my handwriting's sloppy here... ) < 12-1 today ( positive ROI ). #3 LIFE IN SHAMBLES: The As Man is 10 fer 17 with 2nd off the break runners of this ilk who were 1-2-3 in last & are 9-2 or lower today ( healthy ROI ). #6 GREAT STUFF: Jacobsen has won with half of his ten ungraded dirt dashers off 20-40 days at 10-1 or beneath ( another with a juicy return on investment ). 

 

Race 8 -

1.Senior Investment

2.Kurilov ( Chi )

3.Alex the Terror

#4 SENIOR INVESTMENT was a daylight clear runner up in a slightly tougher event last time out, and McPeek is 4-6 w/3rd off the L/O stock fitting this criteria ( $4, $4, $8 & $16 ). This one "finished" first in the only 3rd off the break attempt, but was DQ'd to last. #9 KURILOV (CHI) faded a bit in the North American debut, but colt did some good work back home, as attested by that 11:6-3-1 ledger. Brown ( 26% ) day to day ) is 6 for 11 with second off the layoff runners of this type at less than 6-1. #9 ALEX THE TERROR is 4 for 5 at Ozone Park, and what the hell's wrong with that? Soon to be six year old "horse" ( hang on to dem parts, buddy ! ) is 0-4 in 2nd off the shelf starts, but Pletcher doesn't claim too many and it looks like he made a nice investment for Repole ( who tosses around $62,500 like so many nickels and dimes ), and can crash the party. 

 

Race 9 -

1.Exchanging Secrets

2.Soxy Ruby

3.Lil Renegade 

Once again, I'd like to wish everyone a VERY Merry Christmas, and remember, if you can afford to bet my winners ( and losers! ) you can afford a taxi if imbibing. Enjoy the next two days, folks. #8 EXCHANGING SECRETS is 3 for 7 over a fast track ( 0-8 otherwise ), and Adsit is a whopping 5 for 10 with locally based stock who hit the board 16-32 days ago & are < 14-1 in a dirt sprint today ( $16, $19, $5, $11 & $5 ). #3 SOXY RUBY is a game nibblah, so we'll slide underneath. #1 LIL RENEGADE has been in the money in all three tries when starting from the wood & gets in light.  NOTE: AS OF 11:53, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #7 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 


Aqueduct        ( Current )       55-285  ( $593.10 )     Beatable Favorites    10-33 ( 30.1% ) Favorites Win %     99-285 ( 34.7% )

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Matriarch Hcp.   ( Final )          0-1       ( $0.00 )        Beatable Favorites     0-0  ( N/A )      Favorites Win %      0-1     ( 0.0% )

Clark Handicap  ( Final )          0-1       ( $0.00 )        Beatable Favorites     0-0  ( N/A )      Favorites Win %      0-1     ( 0.0% )
Breeders' Cup    ( Final )         3-22    ( $15.40 )        Beatable Favorites     0-2  ( 0.0% )    Favorites Win %      2-22    ( 9.1 % )

Belmont Park     ( Final )       57-327 ( $517.00 )       Beatable Favorites  19-58( 32.8% )    Favorites  Win %  126-327 ( 38.5% )

Kee. Grade 1's   ( Final )             0-3    ( $0.00 )       Beatable Favorites   0-1   ( N/A )        Favorites Win %      0-3     ( 0.0% )

Pa. Derby/Cotil.  ( Final )            1-2     ( $3.80 )      Beatable Favorites   0-0   ( N/A )        Favorites Win %      1-2     ( 50.0% )

Woodbine G1's   ( Final )            0-2     ( $0.00 )      Beatable Favorites    0-1   ( N/A )       Favorites Win %      1-2     ( 50.0% )

Kentucky Downs( Final ):           8-50   ( $61.00 )     Beatable Favorites    0-2   ( 0.0 % )    Favorites Win %     13-50   ( 26.0% )

Saratoga            ( Final ):          68-406 ( $651.00 )  Beatable Favorites    8-40 ( 20.0% )    Favorites Win %   135-406 ( 33.3% )

Los Alamitos      ( Final ):          19-67  ( $123.60 )   Beatable Favorites    2-7   ( 28.6% )   Favorites Win %    28-67   ( 41.8% )

Santa Anita       ( Final ):         67-319 ( $464.80 )    Beatable Favorites    8-33  ( 24.2% )   Favorites Win %  120-319 ( 37.6% )

Belmont Day     ( Final ):          1-13   ( $11.60 )       Beatable Favorites    0-0    ( N/A )       Favorites Win %   5-13     ( 38.5% )

Preakness Day  ( Final ):          1-14   ( $20.00 )      Beatable Favorites    1-2    ( 50,0% )   Favorites Win %   5-14     ( 35.7% )

Churchill Downs ( Final ):          0-1     ( $0.00 )       Beatable Favorites    0-1     ( 0.0% )    Favorites Win %   0-1       ( 0.0% )

Keeneland         ( Final ):        31-141 ( $276.60 )    Beatable Favorites    5-13   ( 38.5% )  Favorites Win %  58-141   ( 41.1% )

Gulfstream        ( Final ):       194-958 ( $1,801.00 ) Beatable Favorites    22-87 ( 25.3% )  Favorites Win %  344-958  ( 35.9% )

Santa Anita        ( Final ):            1-11   ( $4.40 )     Beatable Favorites      0-0   ( N/A )     Favorites Win %    4-11     ( 36.4% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2014-2017 Final ): 47-305   ( $423.20 ) Beatable Favorites: 16-48 ( 33.3% ) Favorite's Win %: 99-305  ( 32.5% )  +/-: -30.6% against a 17.1% takeout                          


Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-568      ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68    ( 22.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 163 -587  ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks   2014-7 (All Final):1666-7699 ($13,276.50)Beatable Favorites : 245-879( 27.9% ) Favorite's Win %: 2826-7782( 36.3% ) +/-: -13.8%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 1751-8267 ($14,095.70)Beatable Favorites : 260-947( 27.5% ) Favorite's Win %: 2989-8369 ( 35.7% ) +/-: -14.6%  against a 16.6% takeout


 CoxLA2017