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Frozen out here yesterday, so hopefully the wind chill is a bit lower today so we have some action !

 

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!

Oh, and as for Aqueduct, when we say "Aqueduct dirt" it is excluding the now defunct inner track, and we do NOT use any turf stats from the main turf course when handicapping the inner.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


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Aqueduct - 12/29

 

Race 1 -

1.Grandpa's Arianna

2.Short Kakes

3.Daring Prospect

Five signed on, but we see just three with a legitimate shot. #4 GRANDPA'S ARIANNA went pillar to post to score by a pole in one of the final turf races of the year here on December 7th, and finished second & third in the lone dirt forays ( with moderate figures ). Catches a glib surface for just the second time today, and you may get a bit of value with this one, given a couple of more proven dirt runners entered. #3 SHORT KAKES is a nibbler by rote ( 17:2-5-4 & 7:0-4-1 on a fast track ), and when you factor that in with a jockey who tries hard every time, there you have the makings of a quintessential "unders" playah. #1 DARING PROSPECT is 4:1-1-1 at The Big A, and in a bit of an anomaly, draws the pine for the first time in 18 starts. Filly has grabbed slices in all three attempts when starting from posts 1-3, so we'll slide beneath. 

 

Race 2 -

1.Madeline's Hope

2.The Cake Is a Lie

3.Catania Rose

We don't have a good read on this heat, so be careful. #3 MADELINE'S HOPE exits an open claiming deal where both runners who have come back to run, got the job done, and this one is now back in NYB company. Franco riding well of late and we'll give this one a tepid nod. Gullo must've been puking after plunking down 25K for #4 THE CAKE IS A LIE at the end of October, only to see her run up the track at 5-2 over at Big Sandy. He's given her some time to recover, and she's an obvious factor if able to revert to the penultimate start. #5 CATANIA ROSE has worked well since the last and is as good as any to close things out.

 

Race 3 -

1.Wall of Compassion

2.Incleveland

3.Wealth Effect

These three & no more for all our rolling action. #3 WALL OF COMPASSION ( cross entered tomorrow at Laurel so check the changes ) has rung up a pair of "66's" in both fast track dirt outings ( a second & a third ) & is 3rd off the layoff today. Mild choice. #1 INCLEVELAND was perfectly spotted by Pletcher at Philadelphia Park 40 days ago, when having the hood affixed for the first time and procuring the diploma in wire to wire fashion. Cuts back to one turn for the first time today, and while we normally feel front end routers on the cutback have a tendency to come from off the pace rather than send, we think this one will be gunning, given the dearth of speed & the 22 4/5th's opening quarter from last. #2 WEALTH EFFECT is better bred for the dirt than the turf, and the turf form is both fine and dandy. Irad gets the nod.

 

Race 4 -

1.Fleet Admiral

2.Cookie Crisp

3.Alpha Team

#3 FLEET ADMIRAL didn't display much in either dirt outing, but they were both over a wet surface ( AND at the beginning of his career ), and actually this runner has come along nicely enough on the gramma ( only being farther back than six lengths once in his last quintet ), and 353 Tomlinson ( compared to a 286 on the lawn ) tells us to give this chap some respect today. #1 COOKIE CRISP ( a sinfully delicious, sugar laden cereal during my youth ) has yet to miss a super in four tries over the brown stuff, and is a deserving favorite ( a guesstimate, as the odds aren't up yet as of this writing on Christmas night...yeah, that's right, we're working ) in for his lowest price yet. #4 ALPHA TEAM was a runner up in his lone dirt dash on a fast track last time out & rounds out the top three. 

 

Race 5 -

1.Carry Your Heels

2.Woundwithhereyes

3.Lady Rullah

There are three sharp DRF Formulator stats in play for the troika of runners we're diggin' so let's hit you with the factoids in a no-frills manner... #1 CARRY YOUR HEELS: Terranova is a terror with mid level dirt dashers who missed the money < 25 days ago & are 7-1 or less today, as he's 4 for 9 in that regards with the winners coming back $6, $6, $11 & $16. #4 WOUNDWITHHEREYES: Rudy Rod is 20:7-4-1 with local runners of this ilk who crashed the party 18-36 days back & are now < 7-1. #3 LADY RULLAH: Carlito is 2 for 8 when adding the hood to his dirt stock off absences of 1-43 days at the same odds listed for the top two selections.

 

Race 6 -

1.Truly a Moon Shot

2.Tale Of Mist

3.City Traveler

#5 TRULY A MOON SHOT finished second behind a next out winner the only time he was put up for sale, and earned a solid number that day as well. Draw a line through the last, as those starter allowance races can get a mite salty, and you may get slightly inflated odds on this one due to the poor recent running line. #4 TALE OF MIST is available for purchase in hi first start for Rice today, and that unto itself is enough reason to include ( as well as Irad hopping on ). This one is notoriously a fringe player so we'll keep beneath. #1 CITY TRAVELER finished third in a strung out field in first try for Oscar, Oscar, Oscar, and loses 5 lb.'s today.

 

Race 7 -

1.Ethan Hunt

2.Calculated Risker

3.Proletariat

#11 ETHAN HUNT ( a character from Mission Impossible, sired by Mission Impazible ) has been a part of the party in 9 of 10 at this dist., and Toscano ( 13% day to day ) is 3 for 7 with second off the L/O runners fitting this criteria who were ITM 14-34 days back & are less than 6-1 today ( $7, $4 & $13 ). #5 CALCULATED RISKER has won 3 of 5 & finished 3rd in the lone Ozone Park foray. Totally logical. #1 PROLETARIAT hasn't been sen since just before Saint Patrick's Day, but returns sans tes-tee-klees and could perk up a bit.  NOTE: AS OF 11:57, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #10 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race 8 -

1.Grand Valour

2.Pence

3.Salty Slew

#5 GRAND VALOUR was an honest third versus slightly tougher when going over a fast strip for the first time on 12/6, and 23% clan is a sensational 9:6-2-0-1 with maiden claiming dirt sprinters who were 1-2-3 15-31 days in the rear & they have a positive ROI in that regards as well. #8 PENCE didn't look great in the lane on Friday, and I'm actually surprised Ortiz is eschewing the top choice in favor of this one, but perhaps he moves up trying a fast surface for the 2nd time. #6 SALTY SLEW bested 2/3rd's of the field in his first try off an elongated break up at the Lakes, and could move forward with that under his girthstrap.  NOTE: AS OF 12:02, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #4 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 


Aqueduct        ( Current )       57-294  ( $609.30 )     Beatable Favorites    10-33 ( 30.1% ) Favorites Win %     101-294 ( 34.4% )( As of Friday at noon )

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Malibu Stakes   ( Final )          0-1       ( $0.00 )        Beatable Favorites     0-0  ( N/A )      Favorites Win %      0-1     ( 0.0% )

Matriarch Hcp.   ( Final )          0-1       ( $0.00 )        Beatable Favorites     0-0  ( N/A )      Favorites Win %      0-1     ( 0.0% )

Clark Handicap  ( Final )          0-1       ( $0.00 )        Beatable Favorites     0-0  ( N/A )      Favorites Win %      0-1     ( 0.0% )
Breeders' Cup    ( Final )         3-22    ( $15.40 )        Beatable Favorites     0-2  ( 0.0% )    Favorites Win %      2-22    ( 9.1 % )

Belmont Park     ( Final )       57-327 ( $517.00 )       Beatable Favorites  19-58( 32.8% )    Favorites  Win %  126-327 ( 38.5% )

Kee. Grade 1's   ( Final )             0-3    ( $0.00 )       Beatable Favorites   0-1   ( N/A )        Favorites Win %      0-3     ( 0.0% )

Pa. Derby/Cotil.  ( Final )            1-2     ( $3.80 )      Beatable Favorites   0-0   ( N/A )        Favorites Win %      1-2     ( 50.0% )

Woodbine G1's   ( Final )            0-2     ( $0.00 )      Beatable Favorites    0-1   ( N/A )       Favorites Win %      1-2     ( 50.0% )

Kentucky Downs( Final ):           8-50   ( $61.00 )     Beatable Favorites    0-2   ( 0.0 % )    Favorites Win %     13-50   ( 26.0% )

Saratoga            ( Final ):          68-406 ( $651.00 )  Beatable Favorites    8-40 ( 20.0% )    Favorites Win %   135-406 ( 33.3% )

Los Alamitos      ( Final ):          19-67  ( $123.60 )   Beatable Favorites    2-7   ( 28.6% )   Favorites Win %    28-67   ( 41.8% )

Santa Anita       ( Final ):         67-319 ( $464.80 )    Beatable Favorites    8-33  ( 24.2% )   Favorites Win %  120-319 ( 37.6% )

Belmont Day     ( Final ):          1-13   ( $11.60 )       Beatable Favorites    0-0    ( N/A )       Favorites Win %   5-13     ( 38.5% )

Preakness Day  ( Final ):          1-14   ( $20.00 )      Beatable Favorites    1-2    ( 50,0% )   Favorites Win %   5-14     ( 35.7% )

Churchill Downs ( Final ):          0-1     ( $0.00 )       Beatable Favorites    0-1     ( 0.0% )    Favorites Win %   0-1       ( 0.0% )

Keeneland         ( Final ):        31-141 ( $276.60 )    Beatable Favorites    5-13   ( 38.5% )  Favorites Win %  58-141   ( 41.1% )

Gulfstream        ( Final ):       194-958 ( $1,801.00 ) Beatable Favorites    22-87 ( 25.3% )  Favorites Win %  344-958  ( 35.9% )

Santa Anita        ( Final ):            1-11   ( $4.40 )     Beatable Favorites      0-0   ( N/A )     Favorites Win %    4-11     ( 36.4% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2014-2017 Final ): 47-306   ( $423.20 ) Beatable Favorites: 16-48 ( 33.3% ) Favorite's Win %: 99-306  ( 32.3% )  +/-: -30.9% against a 17.1% takeout                          


Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-568      ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68    ( 22.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 163 -587  ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks   2014-7 (All Final):1666-7700 ($13,276.50)Beatable Favorites : 245-879( 27.9% ) Favorite's Win %: 2826-7783( 36.3% ) +/-: -13.8%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 1751-8268 ($14,095.70)Beatable Favorites : 260-947( 27.5% ) Favorite's Win %: 2989-8370 ( 35.7% ) +/-: -14.6%  against a 16.6% takeout


 CoxLA2017