KevinCoxItem


CANCELLED 

 

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!

Oh, and as for Aqueduct, when we say "Aqueduct dirt" it is excluding the now defunct inner track, and we do NOT use any turf stats from the main turf course when handicapping the inner.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s):


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Aqueduct - 1/5

 

Race 1 -

1.Bank Elaboration

2.She's Cookin

3.Forever Rising

How do you transform a 5% trainer into an 80% ( or 100% ! ) wunderkind ? Why with DRF Formulator, of course ! In the case of #3 BANK ELABORATION, we have a second off the layoff runner with excellent speed, who's backed by a 4 for 5 trainer stat with this barn's maiden claimers who were ITM 15-38 days ago ( dirt ). The winners came back $3, $5, $7 & $11, and hat stat becomes a perfect 4 fer 4 if this one is given a M.L. of less than 13-1. #3 SHE'S COOKIN goes turf to dirt and two turns to one today while having the hood affixed for the first time. #5 FOREVER RISING has finished second in her two dirt starts & is logical once again. 

 

Race 2 -

1.Missile Bomb

2.The Caretaker

3.Quai Voltaire

#1 MISSILE BOMB has hit the board in all eight of his one turn starts, owns a win over the strip, and the well named Cox ( from limited data ) is 2 for 5 with second off the claim maiden winners ( $7 & $17 ). Slight edge. #2 THE CARETAKER ( “Mr Grady, you were the caretaker here.” Grady, “I'm sorry to differ with you sir, but you are the caretaker. You've always been the caretaker. I should know sir. I've always been here.” ) is available for purchase for the first time today, owns a win over the strip, & McL. is 2-6 when putting his dirt dashers up for sale for the 1st time off breaks of < 93 days at odds below.  10-1 ( OTB in last ). #8 QUAI VOLTAIRE is a nibblah by rote ( 18:1-6-4 ), but owns a win & a second from as many starts when breaking from the wood & has crashed the party in 5 of 6 over this strip.

 

Race 3 -

1.Vicki's Dancer

2.Startwithsilver

3.Zealous Scholar

#1 VICKI'S DANCER has made the tri in five straight, owns a crisp 7:3-1-0 mark at the dx., is 4:1-2-1 when starting from the inside, and Nevin is heaven with 2nd off the claim dirt dashers wo crashed the party 19-39 days ago, as she's a phat 12-31 in that regards with a positive ROI. #3 STARTWITHSILVER won right here in an off the layoff try, and as a matter of fact finished second in her only other similar L/O situation. Gal always gives a good account of herself & is completely logical. #8 ZEALOUS SCHOLAR has been ITM in both Ozone Park events & one of those occurred when breaking from an oitside-ish slot. Over/Under for the "Bobblehead Lookbacks" with this speedster is 3 1/2. 

 

Race 4 -

1.Simona

2.Big Expense

3.Parlapiano

#8 SIMONA has essentially improved with each & every start, has hit the board in both dirt tries, exits a race where the winner came back to get the job done next time out, and will be led over by a 12% conditioner who's a groovy 4:3-1-0 with runners of this ilk who were 1-2-3 less than 43 days ago at odds of less than 8-1 ( $4, $6, $6 ). Love the draw. #7 BIG EXPENSE goes turf to dirt, 2X to 1X & gets in light. Could spice things up a bit. #3 PARLAPIANO has yet to miss a super & is logical once again. 

 

Race 5 -

1.Shalako

2.Morning Buzz

3.Altar Boy

#7 SHALAKO hasn't shown much in either start since being snagged by Nevin three starts ago, but he's still entered above the purchase price from that day and could perk up a bit today. #1 MORNING BUZZ sure is a popular item at the claim box , and with good reason too, as the six year old has been a part of the exacta in more than half of his lifetime dirt starts. Duggan ( 9th different bossman from his last 14 starts ) confidently doubles this one up in class today, and with good reason as this one likes both the trip and the strip. #1 ALTAR BOY is another who's had to leave several forwarding addresses of late, entering the gate for his fourth different trainer in as many outings, and is ALSO hiked off the purchase. Versatile sort has good form & should be left in the hopper. 

 

Race 6 -

1.Joy Drive

2.Cheyenne Bull

3.Karma Delight

#11 JOY DRIVE has never been out of the money on the dirt, finished second in his only "second off the break" try, is 3:2-1-0 when breaking from the outside, and Rice is 5:3-0-2 when putting her dirt dashers up for sale for the first time off this kind of L/O situation ( ITM in last ). The winners came back $10, $3 & $3, and Junior ( likely to be Rice's go to rider this winter ) gets the call. #4 CHEYENNE BULL is 3rd off the shelf today & owns a 2 for 2 mark when toting 117 or less. Watch out, suckah's ! #1 KARMA DELIGHT has speed and the rail, which is important as this one tallied in his only start when breaking from the one hole over a fast track. 

 

Race 7 -

1.Mr. Buff

2.Backyard Heaven

3.Hammerin Aamer

There are three solid DRF Formulator stats for today's 7th, so let's get to 'em in no frills fashion...  #8 MR. BUFF may just have the best one turn speed in the field, Abel knows how to pop 'em outta the gate, and from a teensie weensie sampling, Kimmel is 2 for 4 with locally based allowance dirt sprinters in the 23-47 day bracket at odds of less than 15-1. #7 BACKYARD HEAVEN will take some pounding at the windows, and with justification too, as the numbers are huge & barn is a lively 5:4-0-1 with 2nd off the L/O maiden breakers in allowance dirt heats at odds beneath the 14-1 watermark ( $5, $3, $10 & $4 ). #2  HAMMERIN AAMER won his only deal when staring from the pine, is 5:2-2-1 at the dist., and Rudy Rod is a whopping 10 for 21 with allowance stock who got some baccala < 51 days back at mutuels of 5-1 or lower right here at Ozone Park. 

 

Race 8 -

1.Pequeno Grande

2.Trinni Juice

3.Freudian Analysis

#1 PEQUENO GRANDE ( "Little Big" ) takes the biggest drop in the game today, and is slightly better bred for the dirt than the turf he's been running on, and the grass numbers ain't half bad. Switches from an apprentice to a journeyman today. #9 TRINNI JUICE is another one taking the plunge & enters today 3rd off the break. #5 FREUDIAN ANALYSIS may plod along for a slice at a price.

 

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Aqueduct          ( Final )       60-306  ( $626.20 )     Beatable Favorites    10-33 ( 30.1% ) Favorites Win %     105-306 ( 34.3% )

Malibu Stakes   ( Final )          0-1       ( $0.00 )        Beatable Favorites     0-0  ( N/A )      Favorites Win %      0-1     ( 0.0% )

Matriarch Hcp.   ( Final )          0-1       ( $0.00 )        Beatable Favorites     0-0  ( N/A )      Favorites Win %      0-1     ( 0.0% )

Clark Handicap  ( Final )          0-1       ( $0.00 )        Beatable Favorites     0-0  ( N/A )      Favorites Win %      0-1     ( 0.0% )
Breeders' Cup    ( Final )         3-22    ( $15.40 )        Beatable Favorites     0-2  ( 0.0% )    Favorites Win %      2-22    ( 9.1 % )

Belmont Park     ( Final )       57-327 ( $517.00 )       Beatable Favorites  19-58( 32.8% )    Favorites  Win %  126-327 ( 38.5% )

Kee. Grade 1's   ( Final )             0-3    ( $0.00 )       Beatable Favorites   0-1   ( N/A )        Favorites Win %      0-3     ( 0.0% )

Pa. Derby/Cotil.  ( Final )            1-2     ( $3.80 )      Beatable Favorites   0-0   ( N/A )        Favorites Win %      1-2     ( 50.0% )

Woodbine G1's   ( Final )            0-2     ( $0.00 )      Beatable Favorites    0-1   ( N/A )       Favorites Win %      1-2     ( 50.0% )

Kentucky Downs( Final ):           8-50   ( $61.00 )     Beatable Favorites    0-2   ( 0.0 % )    Favorites Win %     13-50   ( 26.0% )

Saratoga            ( Final ):          68-406 ( $651.00 )  Beatable Favorites    8-40 ( 20.0% )    Favorites Win %   135-406 ( 33.3% )

Los Alamitos      ( Final ):          19-67  ( $123.60 )   Beatable Favorites    2-7   ( 28.6% )   Favorites Win %    28-67   ( 41.8% )

Santa Anita       ( Final ):         67-319 ( $464.80 )    Beatable Favorites    8-33  ( 24.2% )   Favorites Win %  120-319 ( 37.6% )

Belmont Day     ( Final ):          1-13   ( $11.60 )       Beatable Favorites    0-0    ( N/A )       Favorites Win %   5-13     ( 38.5% )

Preakness Day  ( Final ):          1-14   ( $20.00 )      Beatable Favorites    1-2    ( 50,0% )   Favorites Win %   5-14     ( 35.7% )

Churchill Downs ( Final ):          0-1     ( $0.00 )       Beatable Favorites    0-1     ( 0.0% )    Favorites Win %   0-1       ( 0.0% )

Keeneland         ( Final ):        31-141 ( $276.60 )    Beatable Favorites    5-13   ( 38.5% )  Favorites Win %  58-141   ( 41.1% )

Gulfstream        ( Final ):       194-958 ( $1,801.00 ) Beatable Favorites    22-87 ( 25.3% )  Favorites Win %  344-958  ( 35.9% )

Santa Anita        ( Final ):            1-11   ( $4.40 )     Beatable Favorites      0-0   ( N/A )     Favorites Win %    4-11     ( 36.4% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2014-2017 Final ): 47-306   ( $423.20 ) Beatable Favorites: 16-48 ( 33.3% ) Favorite's Win %: 99-306  ( 32.3% )  +/-: -30.9% against a 17.1% takeout                          


Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-568      ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68    ( 22.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 163 -587  ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks   2014-7 (All Final):1726-8006 ($13,902.70)Beatable Favorites : 255-912( 28.0% ) Favorite's Win %: 2931-8089( 36.2% ) +/-: -13.2%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 1811-8574 ($14,721.90)Beatable Favorites : 270-980 ( 27.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 3094-8676 ( 35.7% ) +/-: -14.2%  against a 16.7% takeout


 CoxLA2017