KevinCoxItem


 

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same!

Oh, and as for Aqueduct, when we say "Aqueduct dirt" it is excluding the now defunct inner track, and we do NOT use any turf stats from the main turf course when handicapping the inner.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s):


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Aqueduct - 1/6

 

Race 1 -

1.Merger of Banks

2.Iron Johnny

3.Just Bustin

#1 MERGER OF BANKS outran his odds when finishing second in this race a month ago, and we like how this one has progressed along the way. 5% conditioner is ( for him ) an outstanding 7:4-1-1 with maiden claiming dirt runners who hit the board last time out & are < 5-1 today ( $5, $3, $11 & $7 ). #4 IRON JOHNNY takes the biggest drop in the game today, and from a minute sampling, Maker is 4:2-1-0 when giving locally based runners this kind of slide down the ladder ( $4 & $5 ). #6 JUST BUSTIN completes the triad of runners that we'll be using in all our rolling action, as not only is this another one available for sale for the first time today, but is much better bred for the dirt than the green stuff, and the turf numbers ain't half bad.

 

Race 2 -

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Race 3 -

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Race 4 -

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Race 6 -

1.Split Time

2.Puffery

3.Queen Apollo

#12 SPLIT TIME was a well clear runner up first time outta the box for Linda on 12/5, and 22% shedrow is a groovy 7 for 15 with second timers under these circumstances who hit the board 13-38 days back & are 5-1 or less. May regress a little bit, given the 306 Tommy, but should still be able to get the job done vs. these. #5 PUFFERY had a nice opening to the career when finishing second to a next out winner, but then as so often happens with the youngsters, was sent to the shelf for one reason or another. The comebacker left a lot to be desired at 7-2, but there was a baby "Z" pattern shown, so at least she gained a bit of ground in the stretch. You may get some value here. #9 QUEEN APOLLO gave up the ghost a bit late in the game of the 12/16 overture, but 414 Tommy tells us to give this one another chance.

 

Race 7 -

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#1 HOLLAND ROAD has improved over his last quartet, shoots for the three bagger today, and we dig it with Dilger when he runs those who scored < 31 days ago in a one turn dirt event at odds > 1.25-1 & < 3.75-1 as he's a jazzy 10:5-3-1 with 'em ( $3.50+ ROI as well as a 2 for 3 mark with allowance type ). #2 FUEL THE BERN is still claim protected by Gargan, and one of the two dirt events on the resume' ( last year ) was okay. #7 SET THE TRAPPE was snagged off a disappointing effort by good guy Jimmy Ferraro in the most recent, and he finished out the year on a good note. We like that he's not back up for sale today, and Cancel ( who got a big winner home for him a couple'a weeks ago ) gets the nod. 

 

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_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

Aqueduct          ( Final )       60-306  ( $626.20 )      Beatable Favorites   10-33 ( 30.1% ) Favorites Win %  105-306 ( 34.3% )

Malibu Stakes   ( Final )          0-1       ( $0.00 )        Beatable Favorites     0-0  ( N/A )      Favorites Win %      0-1     ( 0.0% )

Matriarch Hcp.   ( Final )          0-1       ( $0.00 )        Beatable Favorites     0-0  ( N/A )      Favorites Win %      0-1     ( 0.0% )

Clark Handicap  ( Final )          0-1       ( $0.00 )        Beatable Favorites     0-0  ( N/A )      Favorites Win %      0-1     ( 0.0% )
Breeders' Cup    ( Final )         3-22    ( $15.40 )        Beatable Favorites     0-2  ( 0.0% )    Favorites Win %      2-22    ( 9.1 % )

Belmont Park     ( Final )       57-327 ( $517.00 )       Beatable Favorites  19-58( 32.8% )    Favorites  Win %  126-327 ( 38.5% )

Kee. Grade 1's   ( Final )             0-3    ( $0.00 )       Beatable Favorites   0-1   ( N/A )        Favorites Win %      0-3     ( 0.0% )

Pa. Derby/Cotil.  ( Final )            1-2     ( $3.80 )      Beatable Favorites   0-0   ( N/A )        Favorites Win %      1-2     ( 50.0% )

Woodbine G1's   ( Final )            0-2     ( $0.00 )      Beatable Favorites    0-1   ( N/A )       Favorites Win %      1-2     ( 50.0% )

Kentucky Downs( Final ):           8-50   ( $61.00 )     Beatable Favorites    0-2   ( 0.0 % )    Favorites Win %     13-50   ( 26.0% )

Saratoga            ( Final ):          68-406 ( $651.00 )  Beatable Favorites    8-40 ( 20.0% )    Favorites Win %   135-406 ( 33.3% )

Los Alamitos      ( Final ):          19-67  ( $123.60 )   Beatable Favorites    2-7   ( 28.6% )   Favorites Win %    28-67   ( 41.8% )

Santa Anita       ( Final ):         67-319 ( $464.80 )    Beatable Favorites    8-33  ( 24.2% )   Favorites Win %  120-319 ( 37.6% )

Belmont Day     ( Final ):          1-13   ( $11.60 )       Beatable Favorites    0-0    ( N/A )       Favorites Win %   5-13     ( 38.5% )

Preakness Day  ( Final ):          1-14   ( $20.00 )      Beatable Favorites    1-2    ( 50,0% )   Favorites Win %   5-14     ( 35.7% )

Churchill Downs ( Final ):          0-1     ( $0.00 )       Beatable Favorites    0-1     ( 0.0% )    Favorites Win %   0-1       ( 0.0% )

Keeneland         ( Final ):        31-141 ( $276.60 )    Beatable Favorites    5-13   ( 38.5% )  Favorites Win %  58-141   ( 41.1% )

Gulfstream        ( Final ):       194-958 ( $1,801.00 ) Beatable Favorites    22-87 ( 25.3% )  Favorites Win %  344-958  ( 35.9% )

Santa Anita        ( Final ):            1-11   ( $4.40 )     Beatable Favorites      0-0   ( N/A )     Favorites Win %    4-11     ( 36.4% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2014-2017 Final ): 47-306   ( $423.20 ) Beatable Favorites: 16-48 ( 33.3% ) Favorite's Win %: 99-306  ( 32.3% )  +/-: -30.9% against a 17.1% takeout                          


Poly Tracks 2014-6 (All Final): 85-568      ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68    ( 22.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 163 -587  ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks   2014-7 (All Final):1726-8006 ($13,902.70)Beatable Favorites : 255-912( 28.0% ) Favorite's Win %: 2931-8089( 36.2% ) +/-: -13.2%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats   (All Final): 1811-8574 ($14,721.90)Beatable Favorites : 270-980 ( 27.6% ) Favorite's Win %: 3094-8676 ( 35.7% ) +/-: -14.2%  against a 16.7% takeout


 CoxLA2017