Track: Aqueduct
Race Date: 12/28/2025
Prepared By: TrackSmart AI’s Advanced Artificial Intelligence Racing Engine Every race features AI-driven pace projections, Top 3 win contenders, and upset alerts — designed exclusively for players at SaratogaBets, BataviaBets, EmpireCityBets, and Capital OTB.
Race 1 — NY-Bred Maiden Special Weight / $80,000 / 1 Mile (Dirt) AI Confidence Rank: #4
Combined Win % (Top 3): 75%
AI Pace Projection: A fast and contested pace is expected with Bank On Bebe and Lady Delilah sending hard from the gate. This volatile front end sets up perfectly for a stalker sitting just behind the early duel.
The Machine’s Selections
#1 — On a Summer Day
TPN: 100 | Win Probability: 38%
Why the AI likes this horse: She holds a distinct TrackSmart Power advantage over this field and projects to sit the perfect garden trip behind a contested pace. Her consistency in speed figures suggests she is the clear class of the race.
#3 — Bodegas
TPN: 85 | Win Probability: 22%
Angle: This runner is making his second start off a layoff, a strong form cycle angle. His back speed figures are competitive, and he should find a comfortable stalking position.
#6 — Powerful Jo
TPN: 81 | Win Probability: 15%
Angle: A first-time starter debuting in a field of exposed maidens is always dangerous. Recent workout patterns suggest he has enough early foot to be a factor at a price.
The Machine’s Final Analysis
On a Summer Day is the most reliable entity in a race full of question marks. The pace scenario plays directly into her hands, allowing her to inherit the lead when the front-runners tire. She is a solid anchor to start the card.
Alternate Selection (Scratch Protection) #7 — Endless Kiss
TPN: 80 | Win Probability: 12%
Angle: Shows steady form and could pick up pieces if the race completely falls apart. Scratch Rule: This runner moves into the #3 slot if any Top 3 selection is scratched.
Race 2 — Optional Claiming $32,000 / $60,000 / 1 Mile (Dirt) AI Confidence Rank: #8
Combined Win % (Top 3): 73%
AI Pace Projection: Pink Rose and Patty Cakes will ensure an honest pace up front. The race shape favors versatile runners who can press or stalk without needing the lead.
The Machine’s Selections
#1 — Pistol Liz Ablazen
TPN: 100 | Win Probability: 28%
Why the AI likes this horse: She hits a "Peaking" form cycle today, making her third start off the layoff. Her last-out win confirms she is in top form, and she projects to get the jump on the deep closers.
#4 — Pens Street
TPN: 100 | Win Probability: 28%
Angle: This mare drops in class immediately following a win, a high-percentage move for these connections. She owns a proven history at Aqueduct and fits perfectly on speed figures.
#7 — Mursal
TPN: 85 | Win Probability: 17%
Angle: Represents the dangerous Linda Rice barn and shows sharp workouts leading into this. She has the tactical speed to be involved early and the class to hang on late.
The Machine’s Final Analysis
A dead heat on the algorithm between Pistol Liz Ablazen and Pens Street makes this a competitive event. Pistol Liz Ablazen gets the nod due to her favorable form cycle and inside draw, but Pens Street is a formidable rival dropping in class.
Alternate Selection (Scratch Protection) #6 — Patty Cakes
TPN: 80 | Win Probability: 12%
Angle: Has high early speed figures but faces significant pace pressure today. Scratch Rule: This runner moves into the #3 slot if any Top 3 selection is scratched.
Race 3 — Claiming $20,000 / $45,000 / 1 Mile (Dirt) AI Confidence Rank: #3
Combined Win % (Top 3): 75%
AI Pace Projection: Aggregation has the speed to clear, but Market Maven will keep him honest. The pace should be steady but manageable for the front-runner.
The Machine’s Selections
#3 — Aggregation
TPN: 100 | Win Probability: 38%
Why the AI likes this horse: Taking a massive drop in class from Allowance company to Claiming $20,000. His back speed figures are superior to this field, and the class relief signals aggressive intent from the barn.
#5 — Market Maven
TPN: 84 | Win Probability: 22%
Angle: Arrives in good form after a win and possesses the tactical speed to sit second. The Jamie Ness barn excels with these types, making him the logical alternative to the favorite.
#4 — Barnstorming
TPN: 81 | Win Probability: 15%
Angle: Ignore the turf form; his dirt numbers fit right in with this group. Returning from a layoff for the Chad Brown barn, he is a threat if he handles the surface switch.
The Machine’s Final Analysis
Aggregation is the class of the field and takes a plummet in class that usually results in a wire-to-wire victory. If he runs back to his race two starts ago, the rest are running for second.
Alternate Selection (Scratch Protection) #7 — Lotsa Trouble
TPN: 73 | Win Probability: 10%
Angle: Pletcher trainee returning from a long break; watch the tote board for clues. Scratch Rule: This runner moves into the #3 slot if any Top 3 selection is scratched.
Race 4 — Claiming $17,500 N2L / $31,000 / 1 1/8 Miles (Dirt) AI Confidence Rank: #2
Combined Win % (Top 3): 77%
AI Pace Projection: A moderate pace is expected at this extended distance. Caddiemaster may try to steal it on the front end, but Good Bali will be in close pursuit.
The Machine’s Selections
#3 — Good Bali
TPN: 100 | Win Probability: 40%
Why the AI likes this horse: Linda Rice drops this runner significantly in class, a move she executes with high efficiency. He fits best on speed figures and should find this level much more to his liking.
#7 — Caddiemaster
TPN: 81 | Win Probability: 22%
Angle: Coming off a maiden win where he earned the field's highest last-out speed figure. In a race lacking deep speed, he could find himself loose on the lead.
#6 — Doomed
TPN: 80 | Win Probability: 15%
Angle: This runner is sitting on a "Peaking" cycle, making his third start off the layoff. His form is improving, and he offers value underneath the top two.
The Machine’s Final Analysis
Good Bali holds a commanding class and connection edge that is hard to bet against at this level. The drop to
$17,500 signals "win now" intent. Caddiemaster is the primary danger if allowed to set a slow pace.
Alternate Selection (Scratch Protection) #2 — Desperate Proposal
TPN: 76 | Win Probability: 10%
Angle: Makes his second start off a layoff and gets a significant rider upgrade. Scratch Rule: This runner moves into the #3 slot if any Top 3 selection is scratched.
Race 5 — Maiden Special Weight / $85,000 / 1 Mile (Dirt) AI Confidence Rank: #6
Combined Win % (Top 3): 73%
AI Pace Projection: Free Spin and Salvation project to control the tempo. The pace should be honest but not destructive, favoring those near the lead.
The Machine’s Selections
#4 — Salvation
TPN: 100 | Win Probability: 30%
Why the AI likes this horse: The most consistent runner in the field, boasting speed figures that consistently hit the par for this level. The Rice/Lezcano combination is potent, and he projects a perfect trip.
#5 — Bold Strength
TPN: 92 | Win Probability: 25%
Angle: A Brad Cox trainee returning from a layoff after a strong debut effort. His debut speed figure puts him right in the mix, and he has been working steadily for this return.
#3 — Free Spin
TPN: 87 | Win Probability: 18%
Angle: Stretching out from a sprint, this runner should show improved early speed. The Prat/Dutrow team is a high-percentage angle, and he could be tough to catch.
The Machine’s Final Analysis
Salvation is the safe play based on proven consistency, but Bold Strength has the "unknown potential" upside that could upset the apple cart. Expect these two to battle it out in the lane.
Alternate Selection (Scratch Protection) #2 — Radauti
TPN: 82 | Win Probability: 12%
Angle: Making his second start off a layoff for the Clement barn; should improve. Scratch Rule: This runner moves into the #3 slot if any Top 3 selection is scratched.
Race 6 — Claiming $50,000 / $58,000 / 1 Mile (Dirt) AI Confidence Rank: #10
Combined Win % (Top 3): 72%
AI Pace Projection: A fast pace is likely with Executive Order and Celestial Glaze pressing the issue. This sets up well for the stalkers sitting just off the pace.
The Machine’s Selections
#2 — Chileno
TPN: 100 | Win Probability: 27%
Why the AI likes this horse: Dropping out of Allowance company into a Claiming race for the Brad Cox barn is a major intent signal. He has elite back speed figures and sits a perfect garden trip.
#4 — Gunner Bay
TPN: 99 | Win Probability: 26%
Angle: Hitting his "Peaking" cycle third off the layoff. His speed figures have jumped significantly since his return, and another step forward puts him in the winner's circle.
#6 — Excellorator
TPN: 97 | Win Probability: 19%
Angle: A true "horse for the course," undefeated in two starts at Aqueduct. He is in sharp form and fits well here, though the class drop of the top pick is a concern.
The Machine’s Final Analysis
A very tight race on the numbers. Chileno gets the slight edge due to the aggressive class drop and connection strength, but Gunner Bay offers better value as a horse on the improve. Box these contenders.
Alternate Selection (Scratch Protection) #3 — Celestial Glaze
TPN: 89 | Win Probability: 10%
Angle: Has speed and good connections but is 0-for-10 at Aqueduct. Use with caution. Scratch Rule: This runner moves into the #3 slot if any Top 3 selection is scratched.
Race 7 — Claiming $30,000 N2L / $41,000 / 6 Furlongs (Dirt) AI Confidence Rank: #1
Combined Win % (Top 3): 83%
AI Pace Projection: A scorching pace duel is projected between King Phoenix and New York Scrappy. This meltdown scenario heavily favors a horse that can stalk and pounce.
The Machine’s Selections
#6 — Spirit Dragon
TPN: 100 | Win Probability: 45%
Why the AI likes this horse: He holds a massive TrackSmart Power advantage over this field. His recent speed figures are significantly higher than the par for this level, and the pace setup is perfect for his stalking style.
#4 — New York Scrappy
TPN: 79 | Win Probability: 20%
Angle: Dropping in class and coming off a win two starts back. He will be part of the early pace battle, but his class edge makes him the one to catch.
#7 — Mo Go
TPN: 79 | Win Probability: 18%
Angle: Returning from a layoff for the dangerous Linda Rice barn. If the pace collapses completely, he is a fresh threat who could pick up the pieces.
The Machine’s Final Analysis
Spirit Dragon is the day's strongest conviction play. The speed figure gap between him and the field is substantial, and the race shape virtually guarantees he gets first run on the leaders. A single in multi-race wagers.
Alternate Selection (Scratch Protection) #3 — Skytown
TPN: 78 | Win Probability: 10%
Angle: Second off a layoff and dropping in class, but has a long gap in his form.
Scratch Rule: This runner moves into the #3 slot if any Top 3 selection is scratched.
Race 8 — Bay Ridge Stakes / $125,000 / 1 Mile (Dirt) AI Confidence Rank: #7
Combined Win % (Top 3): 76%
AI Pace Projection: A potential pace meltdown. Three horses have "Need-the-Lead" profiles, ensuring a destructive early tempo that sets the table for the closers.
The Machine’s Selections
#7 — Fast and Frisky
TPN: 100 | Win Probability: 30%
Why the AI likes this horse: The pace scenario could not be better for this Brad Cox trainee. With a hot pace expected, her ability to stalk and finish gives her a tactical advantage over the speed horses.
#2 — Landed
TPN: 92 | Win Probability: 25%
Angle: Wesley Ward is a master with fresh horses, and she returns here with excellent works. She has speed but is classy enough to rate if necessary. Proven winner at the track.
#5 — Bernietakescharge
TPN: 88 | Win Probability: 21%
Angle: Owns the field's highest raw speed figures but faces a difficult pace task. If she can shake loose early without using too much energy, she is the one to catch.
The Machine’s Final Analysis
The pace makes the race. Expect the leaders to come back to the field, allowing Fast and Frisky to surge past in the final furlong. Landed is the wildcard if she is ready to fire fresh.
Alternate Selection (Scratch Protection) #4 — Soloshot
TPN: 87 | Win Probability: 10%
Angle: Had a troubled trip last out and is better than that line suggests. Good value. Scratch Rule: This runner moves into the #3 slot if any Top 3 selection is scratched.
Race 9 — NY-Bred Allowance / $81,000 / 1 1/8 Miles (Dirt) AI Confidence Rank: #9
Combined Win % (Top 3): 73%
AI Pace Projection: Aula is the clear speed on paper and will try to wire the field. Hey Toby will apply pressure, setting up a fair fight for the stalkers.
The Machine’s Selections
#2 — Bob John Ray
TPN: 100 | Win Probability: 28%
Why the AI likes this horse: Reliable and consistent, he earned the best recent speed figure in this field last time out. From his inside post, he can save ground and strike when the leaders fade.
#7 — Hey Toby
TPN: 97 | Win Probability: 25%
Angle: Returns fresh for a high-percentage layoff barn. He has the speed to be involved early and the class to contend if he's ready to run off the bench.
#9 — Berning Beauty
TPN: 94 | Win Probability: 20%
Angle: Shipping in from Finger Lakes in raging form. While the circuit switch is a hurdle, his numbers stack up well, and his winning habit must be respected.
The Machine’s Final Analysis
A competitive allowance heat where trip will decide the outcome. Bob John Ray gets the call based on recent figures and a favorable draw, but Hey Toby is a serious threat if he brings his "A" game off the layoff.
Alternate Selection (Scratch Protection) #3 — Corvus
TPN: 85 | Win Probability: 12%
Angle: A "Peaking" horse making his third start off a layoff. Dangerous late runner. Scratch Rule: This runner moves into the #3 slot if any Top 3 selection is scratched.
Race 10 — Claiming $17,500 N2L / $31,000 / 7 Furlongs (Dirt) AI Confidence Rank: #5
Combined Win % (Top 3): 77%
AI Pace Projection: A chaotic sprint with multiple horses needing the lead. The pace will be hot, favoring those who can sit just off the first flight.
The Machine’s Selections
#9 — Take Me to Londyn
TPN: 100 | Win Probability: 33%
Why the AI likes this horse: Fits the "Peaking" profile perfectly in her third start back. The Brad Cox/Flavien Prat combo is deadly, and a recent bullet workout signals she is sitting on a big effort.
#4 — Itwillbefun
TPN: 89 | Win Probability: 24%
Angle: Had a rough trip in her last start but recovered to run a competitive number. She drops into a realistic spot here and should offer value as the main alternative.
#1 — Cara's Chianti
TPN: 81 | Win Probability: 20%
Angle: Also peaking third off the layoff and coming off a win. She has speed from the rail, but will need to withstand significant pressure to hold on.
The Machine’s Final Analysis
Take Me to Londyn looks poised to graduate from the N2L ranks today. The outside post allows her to watch the speed duel develop inside and pounce at the right time.
Alternate Selection (Scratch Protection) #2 — Cha Cha Wren
TPN: 65 | Win Probability: 10%
Angle: Consistent check-getter who could hit the board if the race melts down. Scratch Rule: This runner moves into the #3 slot if any Top 3 selection is scratched.
Powered by TrackSmart AI Exclusively for SaratogaBets, BataviaBets, EmpireCityBets, and Capital OTB Horseplayers Smarter Picks.
Sharper Insights. More Fun at the Races. Visit www.tracksmartracing.com to learn more.
