Track: Belmont Park
Race Date: 10/15/2026
Prepared By: TrackSmart AI's Advanced Artificial Intelligence Racing Engine
Every race features AI-driven pace projections, Top 3 win contenders, and upset alerts — designed exclusively for players at SaratogaBets, BataviaBets, EmpireCityBets, and Capital OTB.
The Machine operates independently of the Morning Line. Unlike standard handicapping models that lean on public sentiment or oddsmaker predictions, TrackSmart AI generates its figures blind—before the Morning Line is even released. Pure Fundamental Analysis: AI selections are derived 100% from performance data, pace mechanics, and class algorithms. The Machine does not know who the "favorite" is supposed to be.
Race 1 — Maiden Claiming $20,000 / 1 1/16 Miles (Dirt)
AI Confidence Rank: #3 Combined Win % (Top 3): 77.3%
AI Pace Projection & Race Dynamics
Projected Race Shape: Contested / Honest-Fast — an honest tempo with the leaders likely to test each other early.
Early Speed Edge (TS Ignition / TS Surge): #1 Mr R T holds the front-running edge, validated by a B TS Ignition and a B TS Surge.
Late Kick Advantage (TS Closer): #6 Private Flight holds the Garden Spot tracking just off the pace, backed by a C+ TS Closer.
Deep Flow Analysis: Break: #1 Mr R T and #7 Where's Your Boom both show intent to sit near the front. Turn: neither is a true need-the-lead type, so the tempo stays within reason down the backstretch. Stretch: the honest fractions set up #6 Private Flight, who tracks just off the pace and gets the ideal setup to strike as the pacesetters tire, while the class drop for #5 Sorrentino makes him the primary threat to inherit the lead if the front-end duel materializes.
The Pace Beneficiary: #6 Private Flight — the Garden Spot horse tracking just off the pace.
The Machine's Selections
#5 — Sorrentino
Normalized TPN: 100 | Win Probability: 46.7%
The Setup: Drops in class today with a B TS Caliber and an A- TS Power Score, on a current form cycle.
The Edge: Brings an A TS Ignition and an A- TS Surge as a tactical stalker, and the class relief outweighs a modest C+ TS Velocity. Leads the field by 4 Normalized TPN points over In Front Runner.
TrackSmart Alert: Massive Class Plunge
#3 — In Front Runner
Normalized TPN: 96 | Win Probability: 18.7%
The Setup: Moves laterally with a B TS Caliber and a B+ TS Velocity, off a start 15 days ago.
The Edge: Owns a B TS Closer and a B+ TS Power Score, positioned to benefit if the early pace heats up. Sits 4 Normalized TPN points behind the top selection.
#6 — Private Flight
Normalized TPN: 90 | Win Probability: 12.0%
The Setup: Drops in class with a B TS Caliber and a B+ TS Velocity, back quickly after a start 7 days ago.
The Edge: An A- TS Surge puts him in the Garden Spot just off the tempo, with elite jockey-trainer connections behind the class relief. Sits 10 Normalized TPN points behind the top selection.
TrackSmart Alert: Class Relief Edge
#1 — Mr R T
Normalized TPN: 88 | Win Probability: 9.3%
The Setup: Moves laterally with a C+ TS Caliber and an A- TS Power Score, current off a start 7 days ago.
The Edge: Balanced B grades across TS Ignition, TS Surge and TS Closer give him a pressing role in the contested early scene. Sits 12 Normalized TPN points behind the top selection.
The Machine's Final Analysis
This is a contested but honest pace, and the class drop for Sorrentino with an A TS Ignition and A- TS Surge gives him the strongest grade profile to control terms. In Front Runner and Private Flight each project to benefit from the tempo, with Private Flight offering the best late setup.
Alternate Selection (Scratch Protection)
#7 — Where's Your Boom
Normalized TPN: 85 | Win Probability: 6.5%
Angle: Sits just outside the top four with an honest early profile; needs to prove fit off the long layoff.
Scratch Rule: This runner moves into the #4 slot if any Top 4 selection is scratched.
Race 2 — Claiming $25,000 / 6 Furlongs (Dirt)
AI Confidence Rank: #6 Combined Win % (Top 3): 65.4%
AI Pace Projection & Race Dynamics
Projected Race Shape: Crowded Early Speed — a fast early tempo, but how the early speed sorts out is uncertain.
Early Speed Edge (TS Ignition / TS Surge): No lone controlling speed — early positions are contested. #1 Beach Colt, #4 Kid Billy, #8 Private Desire and #7 Disarmed will press the issue early.
Late Kick Advantage (TS Closer): #3 Picture This holds the Garden Spot tracking just off the pace.
Deep Flow Analysis: Break: with eight speed-styled runners signed on, #1 Beach Colt and #4 Kid Billy dictate the early fractions. Turn: the pace is grueling down the backstretch as the front-runners begin to feel the heat. Stretch: the race shape heavily favors #3 Picture This, who tracks just off the pace and is ideally positioned to sweep past the exhausted leaders in the final furlong.
The Pace Beneficiary: #3 Picture This — the Garden Spot horse tracking just off the pace.
The Machine's Selections
#4 — Kid Billy
Normalized TPN: 100 | Win Probability: 32.3%
The Setup: Moves laterally off a start 26 days ago with a B TS Caliber and a B+ TS Velocity.
The Edge: An A TS Ignition and an A- TS Surge give him proven speed to hold off closers in a crowded pace, with a B+ TS Power Score. Leads the field by 10 Normalized TPN points over Beach Colt.
#1 — Beach Colt
Normalized TPN: 90 | Win Probability: 18.1%
The Setup: Drops in class with a B+ TS Caliber and an A TS Power Score, off a start 27 days ago.
The Edge: Posts an A+ TS Ignition and A+ TS Surge, though a C- TS Closer leaves him vulnerable if the pace stays contested late. Sits 10 Normalized TPN points behind the top selection.
TrackSmart Alert: Substantial Class Drop
#8 — Private Desire
Normalized TPN: 89 | Win Probability: 15.1%
The Setup: Drops in class off a 68-day freshening with a B+ TS Caliber and a B TS Velocity.
The Edge: An A+ TS Ignition and A TS Surge let him threaten early despite the pressure. Sits 11 Normalized TPN points behind the top selection.
#6 — Burninhunkoflove
Normalized TPN: 89 | Win Probability: 12.9%
The Setup: Moves laterally off a 74-day freshening with a B TS Caliber and a B+ TS Power Score.
The Edge: An A+ TS Ignition and A+ TS Surge, with an elite jockey-trainer combination, make him a consistent grinder who fits well. Sits 11 Normalized TPN points behind the top selection.
The Machine's Final Analysis
Eight speed-styled runners will make the early stages grueling, and Kid Billy's A TS Ignition, A- TS Surge and B+ TS Velocity give him the most resilient profile to hold on. Beach Colt's class drop and Picture This's late setup are the primary threats.
Alternate Selection (Scratch Protection)
#3 — Picture This
Normalized TPN: 86 | Win Probability: 8.2%
Angle: Holds the Garden Spot tracking just off a crowded pace and catches tired speed late.
Scratch Rule: This runner moves into the #4 slot if any Top 4 selection is scratched.
Race 3 — Optional Claiming $80,000 (N2X) / 1 1/16 Miles (Turf)
AI Confidence Rank: #1 Combined Win % (Top 3): 87.1%
AI Pace Projection & Race Dynamics
Projected Race Shape: Turf / LP Priority — a fast early tempo, but how the early speed sorts out is uncertain.
Early Speed Edge (TS Ignition / TS Surge): #4 Capture the Flag holds the front-running edge, validated by an A TS Ignition and an A TS Surge.
Late Kick Advantage (TS Closer): #2 Risk Tolerance has the best turn of foot for the stretch, backed by an A- TS Closer.
Deep Flow Analysis: Break: #4 Capture the Flag establishes the early tempo, though #3 Tee At One is quick enough to ensure the leader does not get away comfortably. Turn: the pace runs hot down the backside as the front-runners test each other, setting up the closers. Stretch: the class and late turn of foot of #2 Risk Tolerance prove difficult to hold off, projecting a perfect run at the tiring leaders.
The Pace Beneficiary: #2 Risk Tolerance — the late-kick beneficiary with the best turn of foot.
The Machine's Selections
#2 — Risk Tolerance
Normalized TPN: 100 | Win Probability: 66.5%
The Setup: Drops in class with an A TS Caliber, an A+ TS Power Score and an A+ TS Velocity.
The Edge: An A- TS Closer supplies the best turn of foot for the stretch, with an elite jockey-trainer combination behind it. Leads the field by 15 Normalized TPN points over Sherlock's Jewel.
TrackSmart Alert: Massive Class Capacity Edge
#1 — Sherlock's Jewel
Normalized TPN: 85 | Win Probability: 13.3%
The Setup: Moves laterally with a B+ TS Caliber and an A- TS Velocity, off a start 27 days ago.
The Edge: An A- TS Closer and an A- TS Power Score give him a strong late kick that guarantees impact. Sits 15 Normalized TPN points behind the top selection.
#4 — Capture the Flag
Normalized TPN: 79 | Win Probability: 7.3%
The Setup: Moves laterally with an A- TS Caliber and an A- TS Velocity, in an ideal cycle 55 days after his last start.
The Edge: An A TS Ignition and A TS Surge carry early speed, though a D TS Closer leaves him vulnerable late. Sits 21 Normalized TPN points behind the top selection.
#7 — Versus
Normalized TPN: 77 | Win Probability: 5.0%
The Setup: Moves laterally with an A- TS Caliber and an A- TS Velocity, off a start 21 days ago.
The Edge: Balanced B+ TS Ignition, B+ TS Surge and B TS Closer grades; needs a perfect ground-saving trip to figure. Sits 23 Normalized TPN points behind the top selection.
The Machine's Final Analysis
Risk Tolerance stands completely above this field on class and TS grades, with an A TS Caliber, A+ TS Velocity and an A- TS Closer that fits the projected hot early pace. Sherlock's Jewel offers the logical late-kick completion.
Alternate Selection (Scratch Protection)
#3 — Tee At One
Normalized TPN: 76 | Win Probability: 3.8%
Angle: Quick enough to push the leader and force a hot tempo; needs a softer field against this caliber.
Scratch Rule: This runner moves into the #4 slot if any Top 4 selection is scratched.
Race 4 — Optional Claiming $75,000 / 6 Furlongs (Dirt)
AI Confidence Rank: #2 Combined Win % (Top 3): 74.7%
AI Pace Projection & Race Dynamics
Projected Race Shape: Crowded Early Speed — an honest tempo with the leaders likely to test each other early.
Early Speed Edge (TS Ignition / TS Surge): No lone controlling speed — early positions are contested. #5 Math Tutor, #6 Sea Vista and #1 Disparate Impact will press the issue early.
Late Kick Advantage (TS Closer): #3 Tartabull holds the Garden Spot tracking just off the pace.
Deep Flow Analysis: Break: #5 Math Tutor looks to dictate terms, but #6 Sea Vista and #1 Disparate Impact will not let him get away easily. Turn: the pace projects to be hot down the backstretch. Stretch: the setup plays perfectly for #3 Tartabull, who holds the Garden Spot just off the pace and should get the ideal trip to pounce turning for home, while #4 Bold Love also benefits from a stalking position behind the contested leaders.
The Pace Beneficiary: #3 Tartabull — the Garden Spot horse tracking just off the pace.
The Machine's Selections
#5 — Math Tutor
Normalized TPN: 100 | Win Probability: 48.0%
The Setup: Moves laterally with a B+ TS Caliber and an A- TS Velocity, current off a start 27 days ago.
The Edge: An A+ TS Ignition and A TS Surge supply the primary speed despite the pressure, with an A- TS Power Score. Leads the field by 8 Normalized TPN points over Disparate Impact.
#1 — Disparate Impact
Normalized TPN: 92 | Win Probability: 14.4%
The Setup: Moves laterally with a B TS Caliber and a B TS Velocity, off a start 39 days ago.
The Edge: B+ TS Ignition and B+ TS Surge place him in a stalking Garden Spot position for a perfect trip underneath. Sits 8 Normalized TPN points behind the top selection.
#3 — Tartabull
Normalized TPN: 90 | Win Probability: 12.3%
The Setup: Moves laterally with a B+ TS Caliber and a B+ TS Power Score, in an ideal cycle 55 days after his last start.
The Edge: An A- TS Surge and a late-running style profile need a faster pace to close, which this setup should deliver. Sits 10 Normalized TPN points behind the top selection.
#6 — Sea Vista
Normalized TPN: 88 | Win Probability: 10.8%
The Setup: Moves laterally with a B+ TS Caliber and an A- TS Power Score, off a start 27 days ago.
The Edge: An A TS Ignition and A TS Surge put him on the engine, though a D TS Closer makes him vulnerable once pressured. Sits 12 Normalized TPN points behind the top selection.
The Machine's Final Analysis
With three speed types sorting out the front, Math Tutor's A+ TS Ignition and A TS Surge give him the most dependable profile to survive the pressure. Disparate Impact and Tartabull project to benefit from the hot tempo.
Alternate Selection (Scratch Protection)
#2 — Helmet of Will
Normalized TPN: 86 | Win Probability: 7.9%
Angle: Contender-tier profile that needs a race off the long layoff to prove fitness.
Scratch Rule: This runner moves into the #4 slot if any Top 4 selection is scratched.
Race 5 — Claiming $12,500 / 6 1/2 Furlongs (Dirt)
AI Confidence Rank: #4 Combined Win % (Top 3): 68.0%
AI Pace Projection & Race Dynamics
Projected Race Shape: Crowded Early Speed — a fast early tempo, but how the early speed sorts out is uncertain.
Early Speed Edge (TS Ignition / TS Surge): No lone controlling speed — early positions are contested. #3 Bootleg Runner, #8 Graywing and #6 Neuschwanstein will press the issue early.
Late Kick Advantage (TS Closer): #1 Ancient World holds the Garden Spot tracking just off the pace.
Deep Flow Analysis: Break: with five speed-styled runners signed on, #3 Bootleg Runner and #8 Graywing look to dictate the early fractions. Turn: the pace is grueling down the backstretch as #6 Neuschwanstein applies pressure. Stretch: the race shape heavily favors #1 Ancient World, who holds the Garden Spot just off the pace and is ideally positioned to sweep past the exhausted leaders, with #2 Tenebris also projecting a favorable stalking trip.
The Pace Beneficiary: #1 Ancient World — the Garden Spot horse tracking just off the pace.
The Machine's Selections
#1 — Ancient World
Normalized TPN: 100 | Win Probability: 43.7%
The Setup: Drops in class with an A TS Caliber and an A TS Power Score, returning off an 84-day freshening.
The Edge: An A TS Ignition and A- TS Surge as a tactical stalker, with a B TS Closer for the finish; the class edge dictates terms. Leads the field by 10 Normalized TPN points over Tenebris.
TrackSmart Alert: Massive Class Capacity Edge
#2 — Tenebris
Normalized TPN: 90 | Win Probability: 13.1%
The Setup: Drops in class with a B+ TS Caliber and an A- TS Power Score, off a start 48 days ago.
The Edge: An A TS Ignition and A- TS Surge give him a logical stalking trip underneath the leaders. Sits 10 Normalized TPN points behind the top selection.
#7 — Apollo Code
Normalized TPN: 88 | Win Probability: 11.2%
The Setup: Moves laterally with a B TS Caliber and an A- TS Velocity, in an ideal cycle 45 days after his last start.
The Edge: An A TS Ignition and A TS Surge make him a solid exotics contender, though a D TS Closer limits the finish. Sits 12 Normalized TPN points behind the top selection.
#4 — Sin Nombre
Normalized TPN: 87 | Win Probability: 9.8%
The Setup: Drops in class with a B TS Caliber and a B TS Power Score, 91 days since his last start.
The Edge: B+ TS Ignition and B+ TS Surge profile as a consistent grinder who fits well. Sits 13 Normalized TPN points behind the top selection.
The Machine's Final Analysis
A heavily contested early pace sets up the stalkers, and Ancient World's A TS Caliber and class drop give him the strongest grade profile to win. Tenebris is the most logical underneath completion.
Alternate Selection (Scratch Protection)
#6 — Neuschwanstein
Normalized TPN: 86 | Win Probability: 7.1%
Angle: One of the contested speed types and a logical exotics contender based on overall profile.
Scratch Rule: This runner moves into the #4 slot if any Top 4 selection is scratched.
Race 6 — Maiden Claiming $50,000 / 1 1/16 Miles (Turf)
AI Confidence Rank: #7 Combined Win % (Top 3): 60.7%
AI Pace Projection & Race Dynamics
Projected Race Shape: Unsettled — early speed unproven, an honest tempo whose early speed sorts out uncertainly.
Early Speed Edge (TS Ignition / TS Surge): No proven controlling speed — early speed is unsettled. #2 Falconer is unproven on this surface, but early speed is noted.
Late Kick Advantage (TS Closer): #4 Cuylle has the best turn of foot for the stretch.
Deep Flow Analysis: Break: in a field of lightly raced juveniles testing the turf route, #2 Falconer is likely to show early intent as he did in his dirt debut. Turn: with no clear front-runners defined by past performance, the tempo projects to be honest but manageable. Stretch: this unhurried setup favors #4 Cuylle, who has the best turn of foot based on prior route experience and should get the first jump on the tiring leaders.
The Pace Beneficiary: #4 Cuylle — the late-kick beneficiary of an unhurried pace.
The Machine's Selections
#4 — Cuylle
Normalized TPN: 100 | Win Probability: 25.6%
The Setup: Moves laterally off a start 13 days ago with a B TS Caliber and a B+ TS Power Score.
The Edge: A B TS Velocity on a clean, forward-shaped progression, with route experience that positions him for the stretch run. Level with Cream and Crimson atop the Normalized TPN ranking.
TrackSmart Alert: Forward-Shaped Juvenile
#6 — Cream and Crimson
Normalized TPN: 100 | Win Probability: 20.5%
The Setup: Drops in class with a B TS Caliber and a B+ TS Power Score, off a start 26 days ago.
The Edge: The substantial class drop is the key edge, supported by a B- TS Velocity. Level with the top selection on Normalized TPN.
TrackSmart Alert: Substantial Class Drop
#5 — Mindful of You
Normalized TPN: 99 | Win Probability: 14.6%
The Setup: Debuts with a C TS Caliber and a C TS Power Score, with gate work that indicates early intent.
The Edge: A live first-time starter in a maiden claiming race. Sits 1 Normalized TPN points behind the top selection.
TrackSmart Alert: Live FTS
#9 — Beckett
Normalized TPN: 99 | Win Probability: 11.4%
The Setup: Debuts with a C TS Caliber and a C TS Power Score, with gate work that indicates early intent.
The Edge: A live first-time starter in a maiden claiming race. Sits 1 Normalized TPN points behind the top selection.
TrackSmart Alert: Live FTS
The Machine's Final Analysis
This is a wide-open juvenile turf route with no proven speed. Cuylle and Cream and Crimson offer the best value of the experienced runners, while Mindful of You and Beckett are live first-time starters.
Alternate Selection (Scratch Protection)
#2 — Falconer
Normalized TPN: 97 | Win Probability: 9.3%
Angle: Dangerous off the class drop and likely to show early intent in a field without proven speed.
Scratch Rule: This runner moves into the #4 slot if any Top 4 selection is scratched.
Race 7 — Allowance $105,000 (N1X) / 1 Mile (Dirt)
AI Confidence Rank: #5 Combined Win % (Top 3): 76.9%
AI Pace Projection & Race Dynamics
Projected Race Shape: Crowded Early Speed — a fast early tempo, but how the early speed sorts out is uncertain.
Early Speed Edge (TS Ignition / TS Surge): No lone controlling speed — early positions are contested. #4 Tuning In, #1 Max Money and #3 Kaz Oil Changer will press the issue early.
Late Kick Advantage (TS Closer): #5 Calling Card holds the Garden Spot tracking just off the pace, backed by an A- TS Closer.
Deep Flow Analysis: Break: with six speed-styled horses entered, #4 Tuning In attempts to secure the lead but faces direct inside pressure from #1 Max Money and #3 Kaz Oil Changer. Turn: the early skirmish ensures a grueling tempo down the backstretch as the front-runners test each other. Stretch: the shape falls perfectly for #5 Calling Card, who holds the Garden Spot just off the pace and gets the first run at the leaders.
The Pace Beneficiary: #5 Calling Card — the Garden Spot horse tracking just off the pace.
The Machine's Selections
#4 — Tuning In
Normalized TPN: 100 | Win Probability: 34.9%
The Setup: Moves laterally with an A TS Caliber and an A+ TS Power Score, in an ideal cycle 53 days after his last start.
The Edge: An A TS Ignition and A+ TS Surge make him the fastest early, though he must survive the pressure. Leads the field by 2 Normalized TPN points over Max Money.
TrackSmart Alert: Massive Class Capacity Edge
#1 — Max Money
Normalized TPN: 98 | Win Probability: 21.0%
The Setup: Returns off a 67-day freshening with an A TS Caliber and an A TS Power Score.
The Edge: An A TS Ignition and A TS Surge make him the main speed threat pressing inside. Sits 2 Normalized TPN points behind the top selection.
#5 — Calling Card
Normalized TPN: 98 | Win Probability: 21.0%
The Setup: Moves laterally with an A- TS Caliber and an A TS Power Score, in an ideal cycle 39 days after his last start.
The Edge: An A- TS Surge and A- TS Closer, with elite connections, put him in the Garden Spot to run at tiring leaders. Sits 2 Normalized TPN points behind the top selection.
#7 — Solo Jim
Normalized TPN: 92 | Win Probability: 9.5%
The Setup: Moves laterally with an A- TS Caliber and an A- TS Velocity, 57 days since his last start.
The Edge: An A- TS Closer profiles as a deep closer who finds the pace scenario to his liking late. Sits 8 Normalized TPN points behind the top selection.
The Machine's Final Analysis
Tuning In is the class of the field, but he has to work hard early against inside pressure. Calling Card and Solo Jim are set up to be flying late if the leaders trade blows.
Alternate Selection (Scratch Protection)
#6 — Probability
Normalized TPN: 87 | Win Probability: 6.6%
Angle: Form is clouded by cycle trends; needs to reverse recent regression and secure a perfect ground-saving trip.
Scratch Rule: This runner moves into the #4 slot if any Top 4 selection is scratched.
Race 8 — Maiden Optional Claiming $75,000 / 6 Furlongs (Inner Turf)
AI Confidence Rank: #8 Combined Win % (Top 3): 49.0%
AI Pace Projection & Race Dynamics
Projected Race Shape: Unsettled — early speed unproven, an honest tempo whose early speed sorts out uncertainly.
Early Speed Edge (TS Ignition / TS Surge): No proven controlling speed — early speed is unsettled. #1 Avalon Beach is unproven on this surface, but early speed is noted.
Late Kick Advantage (TS Closer): #10 Southern Kiss has the best turn of foot for the stretch, backed by a B TS Closer.
Deep Flow Analysis: Break: in a full field of largely unproven two-year-old fillies, there is no clear front-runner defined by past performance. Turn: the early tempo projects to be honest but manageable. Stretch: the lack of severe early pressure sets up #10 Southern Kiss, who has the best turn of foot for the stretch and the required turf experience to navigate the final furlong.
The Pace Beneficiary: #10 Southern Kiss — the late-kick beneficiary with the best turn of foot.
The Machine's Selections
#10 — Southern Kiss
Normalized TPN: 100 | Win Probability: 20.5%
The Setup: Drops in class off a 62-day freshening with a B TS Caliber and a B+ TS Power Score.
The Edge: A B TS Closer and a B TS Velocity on a clean, forward-shaped progression, with turf experience over this group. Leads the field by 3 Normalized TPN points over Avalon Beach.
TrackSmart Alert: Forward-Shaped Juvenile
#1 — Avalon Beach
Normalized TPN: 97 | Win Probability: 15.3%
The Setup: Drops in class with a C+ TS Caliber and a B TS Power Score, last seen 39 days ago.
The Edge: Unproven on this surface, but backed by strong support in the wagering in her debut run. Sits 3 Normalized TPN points behind the top selection.
#12 — Bag the Gold
Normalized TPN: 93 | Win Probability: 13.2%
The Setup: Debuts with a C TS Caliber and a C TS Power Score, with gate work that indicates early intent.
The Edge: Elite jockey-trainer connections back a live first-time starter in a maiden race. Sits 7 Normalized TPN points behind the top selection.
TrackSmart Alert: Live FTS
#4 — Perfect Flow
Normalized TPN: 93 | Win Probability: 10.2%
The Setup: Debuts with a C TS Caliber and a C TS Power Score, with gate work that indicates early intent.
The Edge: A trainer with an elite win rate and elite jockey combination back a live first-time starter. Sits 7 Normalized TPN points behind the top selection.
TrackSmart Alert: Live FTS
The Machine's Final Analysis
This is a highly volatile juvenile turf sprint with several unproven runners. Southern Kiss is the most reliable option on turn of foot and turf experience, with Avalon Beach a dangerous presence off her debut.
Alternate Selection (Scratch Protection)
#5 — Tertia Time
Normalized TPN: 93 | Win Probability: 10.2%
Angle: A promoted first-time starter with live works, level with the fourth selection on Normalized TPN.
Scratch Rule: This runner moves into the #4 slot if any Top 4 selection is scratched.
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